Hot Stove Predictions. First up 3rd Base...

There’s a whole lot of talking going on, but not much action of late (unless you’re following the Dodger divorce). All of that will change on November 20 when teams no longer have exclusive negotiating rights to their free agents and the players hit the open market.

As I hear and read all things Hot Stove, it occurred to me that there are three kinds of teams out there.

One is just looking for a warm body to occupy a position. They have a hole to fill, but it’s not necessarily about getting the best player to fill that hole and it’s more about just getting a body in place. Sometimes this guy is just holding the position until a prospect is ready or simply because they have no one else who can play there.

Next are teams actually looking to not only fill a hole, but to find a quality replacement when someone has left via retirement, free agency, trade, etc They need someone who can step in and do the job at least as well as the previous guy. They might not the best available player, but they represent the best they can do based on their budget, while still filling a need. These teams aren’t looking to rock the budget and will mix and match roles and players if necessary.

Then there are those teams looking for someone that can make a significant difference in their team and help them improve. These players might even displace someone on the roster that is occupying a position. These are teams that are looking for ways to improve and return/get to the play-offs and go further next year.

It’s like when the Angels signed Torii Hunter. It wasn’t an expected move because they had Gary Matthews, Jr. already in center field. Hunter was signed to help take the team to the next level. He brought the Angels another much needed offensive bat, a superior glove and top shelf leadership qualities. Another example would be the Red Sox pursuit of Mark Teixeira last year. They did so already having a first basemen. Teixiera would have created the need to move people around or completely out of the organization. Never-the-less, you make room on your roster for guys like this and that’s an important thing to keep in mind as we move through the Hot Stove.

This year’s candidates to be that kind of player include Matt Holliday, Jason Bay and Chone Figgins; although none of them are on the same level as Teixeira (no matter what Scott Boras says).

There are also three kinds of players in the market every year as well. There’s the guy who will tell you that it’s not about the money and then sign with a team that gives him the best offer. There are guys who are just looking to prolong their careers and then there are guys are who looking for a chance to win. Of course sometimes those things overlap, but you get the idea.

Ok, so I’ve already made a few predictions in previous posts but I’m now ready to take the big leap and really think about and venture a guess as to where more free agents will land.

I’ll take it one position at a time. First up, third basemen.

I’ve already predicted Chone Figgins to the Braves to fill a hole soon to be left by the departure of Garret Anderson. Figgins would also provide the Braves with some much needed speed a the top of their lineup and would also represent an upgrade both offensively and defensively. The Braves will look to compete in the NL East next year and Figgins could help them make some noise. I’m hoping the Angels resign Figgins, but if I were a betting man, I’d pick him going to Atlanta.

There is a caveat though; I predict if the Angels fail to resign Lackey, Figgins will be back in Anaheim. No way the Angels let both players walk. By the way, I’m very intrigued by Figgins' foray into free agency. I believe Figgins wants to be close to his family, but I also believe he wants to win. I’ll be surprised if he simply goes for the best offer.

Adrian Beltre is the kind of player that will probably keep GM’s up late at night. They have to be asking themselves; can he be a difference maker or is he simply a guy who can fill a hole and/or possibly upgrade a position? His defense will probably represent an upgrade to most any team. In any case, I see Beltre going to St. Louis, where there is a chance hitting in a lineup with Albert Pujols would elevate Beltre into a significant run producing role. Beltre should be looking to get back to the NL where his numbers could improve just by changing leagues. The Cardinals are a team you can’t ever count of the play-off hunt and Beltre would be just the kind of risk the Cardinals could afford to take.

Now I’ve also read that the Angels could pursue Beltre if they don’t resign Figgins. Personally, I can’t see that happening. I’m fairly certain Brandon Wood could put up better numbers than Beltre had in 2009.

As I mentioned in a previous post, Joe Crede has two strikes against him. He’s oft injured and his agent is Scott Boras. While I predicted he wouldn’t return to Minnesota, I didn’t offer up a prediction as to where he might go at the time of that post. Well, I see Crede in Baltimore. Crede will probably be keeping third base warm for Orioles prospect Josh Bell who could be making the leap to the big leagues very soon, but not likely to start 2010. Crede isn’t going to cost anyone draft picks and even though he’s represented by Boras, he should come at a discounted price. Crede fills the hole created by Melvin Mora’s departure into free agency.

Speaking of Mora, he will be hard pressed to find work in 2010. The 38 year old had one of his least productive seasons even though he’s only one year removed from a 23 homerun, 104 RBI season. There could very well be a team that believes he can be the player he was in 2008, but that team would be fooling itself. Mora is a Type B free agent, which is a plus for him as he’s looking for work since any team signing him isn’t going to give up a draft pick. Look for Mora to return to the team that drafted him in 1991, the Houston Astros. Playing in Minute Made Park could potentially help Mora’s power numbers and help off set the loss of Miguel Tejada, who also ventures into free agency.

Pedro Feliz had a better offensive year than Adrian Beltre. He’s just as good, if not better defensively. The Mariners would do well to sign Feliz in place of Beltre. He will cost less and give them more production, even at 35 years of age. That’s my prediction and I’m sticking to it.

I never thought I’d see the day when Mark DeRosa would actually be in demand. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a nice player, but he seems to be on the radar of quite a few teams. Philly has often been linked to him, but I can see him signing with Detroit, where he would end up playing second base. I will admit, this pick is more about being contrary than anything else.

Speaking of Philly, who’s going to replace Feliz? The Phillies are definitely one of those teams looking for another piece to help them return to the World Series. That’s why I don’t see them signing DeRosa. That being said, there’s not a lot left to pick from. There’s Miguel Tejada… but I don’t see that happening; so, I’ll throw a somewhat wild idea out there.

I predict the Phillies will sign Marco Scutaro and move him to third base. Some experts are picking the Red Sox to land Scutaro. Well, like I said earlier, I like to be somewhat contrary and when it comes to predicting where free agents land, why not? Scutaro had his best offensive year ever. Problem is he’s a Type A free agent and will cost the Phillies a first round pick. I say they do it anyway, after missing out on Chone Figgins and Adrian Beltre.

Miguel Tejada is going to find the market pretty tough this off season. He’s aging, he’s regressing and he’s a Type A free agent. Ouch. I don’t have a prediction for him just yet; besides, he’s technically still a shortstop.

Others… Look for Adam Kennedy to return to the A’s, Juan Uribe to return to the muddied infield that is the San Francisco Giants and Bobby Crosby to find work with the Cardinals where he will compete for a job as their shortstop. This would reunite Crosby with Mark McGwire (the new batting coach) who Crosby worked on his swing with this past off season.

Those are my picks and they’re always subject to change. I'll take a look at another position next time around.

Lackey not lacking for suitors

I know it’s only talk, but I’m not liking what I’m hearing in the Hot Stove round ups taking place around the internet and within the media as a whole. I have read a few too many instances of pundits and the like predicting that John Lackey will end up in New York wearing pinstripes. According to SI’s John Heyman he is definitely on their radar.

It was one thing to have rent-a-player and current mercenary Mark Teixeira go from the Angels to the Yankees, it’s a completely different animal to think that Lackey could be following in his footsteps. The mere thought of such an event is enough to make me crazier than Al Hrabosky. If Lackey follows the money (and he’s entitled to do exactly that), I will be more than a little disappointed and I will enjoy baseball a little less in 2010.

The odd thing about the Angels Hot Stove season so far is that they haven’t come out publicly about what they might do. Last year we heard over and over again that their number one priority was Mark Teixeira. Maybe they learned a lesson from that? That being said, Tony Reagins has been quoted on Sirius XM radio as saying that there was a "likeliness" that Lackey would return. That kind of statement gives me a little bit of hope, but I’m not ready to relax just yet.

One thing is clear, the Angels aren’t going to sign Lackey during their exclusive window. Perhaps they’ll go the route that White Sox and Paul Konerko went a few years back and have Lackey go out and get the best offer and bring it back to the Angels to match. Seems like the Angels have been used plenty of times to drive up the price for free agents in the past. Maybe it’s their turn to use the same tactic with the rest of major league baseball. I would rather it didn’t come to that, but it’s not like I have any choice in the matter.

This got me to thinking; is a player’s loyalty to a team in baseball gone? Cheryl and I went to the Orange County Youth Sports Foundation’s (OCYF)Sportsman of the Year dinner in 2006 which honored Tim Salmon. One of the things I will never forget about that night was how Salmon’s brother – Mike told us about Tim’s first contract opportunity after putting in his initial service time. Tim instructed his agent to “take the first offer.” I’m sure he got a reaction or two from his agent, but I’m betting he doesn’t regret that decision one single bit. I now think about that every time the hot Stove Season rolls around and I can’t help but wonder if that kind of attitude is dead now.

I don’t know what makes me more nervous, the uncertainty of the Hot Stove season or Brian Fuentes coming in to close a game. At least there are plenty of other players and scenarios to think about.

Which brings me to Chone Figgins. I see Figgins as the key cog in the Angels entire off season plans for their non-pitching needs. If Figgins resigns, I believe the Angels would be done (for the most part) with that part of their plans. It would most likely mean that Figgins would be going to the outfield and Brandon Wood would be playing third base. I can see Figgins moving to RF, with Bobby Abreu getting the majority of the DH duties and an occasional start in the outfield. If Figgins doesn’t resign, I believe the Angels will land Jason Bay or possibly (although less likely in my opinion) Matt Holliday. So the question begs – who would you rather have Figgins, Bay or Holliday? I don’t see a scenario where they have two of the three because I strongly believe Wood is going to get his shot. I don’t believe any of the talk that has the Angels trading Wood. If he was going to be gone, he’d already be somewhere else. Wood is the kind of player who can become the face of a franchise. His ceiling is that high. He’s only 25 – even though it seems like we’ve been hearing about him for as long as he is old.

Now for some other predictions... I guess I’m feeling my oats since Tim Dierkes of mlbtraderumors.com predicted Vlad Guerrero will sign with the White Sox, just like I did in my Let’s get cooking in Anaheim post, where I also predicted the Angels signing Bobby Abreu to an extension. What's that saying about a blind squirrel?

First up: Rich Harden. Rich Harden will turn 28 later this month. When I realized how young Harden was, I was actually kind of surprised. Here’s a guy who made his major league debut (albeit with the hated A’s) in 2003. Despite his injuries over the years, he looks like a player with tremendous up side. The Red Sox have taken on a few of these kinds of guys (see John Smoltz and Brad Penny); however, I think he’ll be headed to the Mets. In a word the Mets starting pitching is simply awful. When your team ends the year with your #2 guy being the likes of either Nelson Figueroa or Mike Pelfrey, Harden becomes the kind of risk, you need to take.

Randy Wolf has been a nice innings eater for the Dodgers, but with all that’s going on in divorce court these days, one has to wonder if the Dodgers will be players in the free agent market. Even if they are, it’s doubtful they’ll be able to afford the likes of Wolf. There is that remote possibility that he’ll give them a home town discount, but I have a feeling he’ll be another piece of the Mets pitching puzzle in 2010. Wolf is going to get a nice pay day after a solid season where he posted a 3.23 ERA. He’s the kind of guy (a lefty) the Mets need to throw against a left handed hitting dominant Philadelphia Phillies team.

If you’re wondering who might DH for the Yankees next year (assuming they don’t resign Hideki Matsui), you might consider Jim Thome. Let’s do the math. Thome is a big left handed bat and the ball flies out of Yankee Stadium to right field. It’s a match made in… well, some place. Thome is a big post season performer and would most likely shine in the Yankee spot light.

Jermaine Dye finally gets to go home. Born in Oakland and a graduate of Will C. Wood High School in Vacaville, Dye will become Billy Bean’s latest attempt to find an aging veteran with a little something left in the tank. He struck gold with Frank Thomas in 2006 and has been looking for that kind of magic ever since. It didn’t work out so well for Mike Piazza in 2007 or Jason Giambi in 2009, but that won’t stop Beane from trying again.

Joe Crede has two strikes against him. First of all, he’s had chronic back problems and secondly, his agent is Scott Boras. That means he’s not going back to Minnesota in 2010. Instead the Twins will look at a guy who could come at a reasonable price, as he is coming off some injury problems of his own. I’m talking Troy Glaus, who is one year removed from a 27 homerun season. The Twins will be breaking in a new outdoor stadium and Glaus could regain his power stroke playing there. At 32 years of age, he’s not ancient and just might have solid season in 2010. He also could be the kind of post-season performer the Twins need.