The good, the bad and the costly

I’m not sure how to handle the Angels’ recent success of late (although I could find a way should it continue). After going an impressive 8-4 on the road; they come home to sweep the Washington Nationals and go 11-4 over their last 15 games. Boo-ya, right? On one hand, a win is a win and I’m jazzed that they’re playing so well. On the other hand, of the five teams they just won series’ from only the Mets are above .500 at the moment. Hmm.

So I guess you could say that I’m delighted that they’re winning, but I’m not going to get too excited because they really haven’t beaten any teams of significance. Again, I’m excited that they’re taking care of business; I’m just not going to get overly pumped up (just yet).

I guess you could say; that’s what the 2011 season has done to me thus far.

Every time I get a little excited, I find myself disappointed a short time later. Maybe there’s something to the way Scioscia goes about his business with that “one-game-at-a-time” attitude. Then again, I’m a fan I’m allowed to let my emotions run the gamut.

So… here we are just past the half way point of the season and the Angels are 1.5 games behind Texas with the trading deadline is getting closer. What are the Angels to do? Will they acquire a “big bat?” Will they add more pitching? What? What in the world will they do, if anything?

The good news is that the Angels are in the hunt and we can actually bring up the trading deadline for all the right reasons (buyers as opposed to sellers).

Okay, so this is the point where you’re probably expecting me to tell you what I think they should do, right?

Well, I’m not going to do that. Nah, it just seems like an exercise I’m just not prepared for and do you really want to hear the rambling of a mad man?

Instead, I’m going to focus a little bit on what the Angels have done over the past several years. I must warn you; this isn’t necessarily going to be pretty. I know, I know – why bring this up now when the team is playing well, right?

Well, I’ve been meaning to do this since Scott Kazmir was released and haven’t had the time to get to it; so now is as good a time as any.

Let’s take a trip down memory lane to explore some of the downright horrendous moves this team has made. I hate to do it now, but again – I wanted to do this at some point. Perhaps you know all of this; however, I’m betting there’s a chance you haven’t seen it all laid out just the way I’m about to.

Let’s start with 2002. Yes, it was a magical year; a year that will forever represent one of if not the greatest time ever to be an Angels fan. It also happens to be the year the Angels signed Aaron Sele to a 3-year, $24 million contract. In those three seasons, Sele posted ERA’s of 4.89, 5.77 and 5.05. His signing represents one of the many bad decisions by the Angels front office since that time.

The last decade (through 2009) has been tremendous; however, as we continue down this road – you might wonder how this team ever managed to do as well as it has and also wonder what they might have done or will do if they had made better decisions. I mean we’re talking about a great many decisions that has involved spending a ton of good money on bad players.

Let’s get to it…

The 2003 team didn’t change much from the prior year personnel wise, as they seemed to have a hang-over from their wildly successful 2002 season. It was also the year that Arte Moreno took over as the owner of the Angels. As great as Moreno has been for the Angels; one can’t help but wonder how much greater the team would have been had they made better decisions under his watch.

In 2004 the Angels struck gold with the Vladimir Guerrero signing; however, it’s important to note that Bartolo Colon was also signed prior to that season and while Colon did win a CY Young – he only had two productive years out of four. In his last two years he managed to start just 29 games and had a 5.11 ERA in 2006 and a 6.34 ERA in 2007. In my opinion, the Angels didn’t get anywhere near the return on their investment of 4-years and $51 million (which was a lot of money for a pitcher at the time).

In 2005 the crap that hit the fan came in the form of Steve Finley. Finley made $6 million and for that investment, the Angels received a .222 batting average. Finley was then traded to the San Francisco Giants for Edgardo Alfonzo (prior to the 2006 season), who made $8 million in 2006 and was released on May 21 after playing in just 18 games. I should note that Finley made $7 million while playing for the Giants that same year. A total of $14 million was wasted over those two years.

In 2005 the Angels also acquired J.C. Romero from the Minnesota Twins (for the 2006 season) for Alexi Casilla, who is currently the starting shortstop for the Twins. Romero earned $2.25 million in 2006 while posting a 6.70 ERA. Casilla has basically been on the Twins major league roster for the past five years. Romero became a free agent prior to the 2007 season. Who got the better of that deal? You really don’t answer that…

2006 brought us Jeff Weaver at the cost of an $8,325,000 contract. Weaver was traded to the Cardinals on July 5 of that year after compiling a horrible 6.29 ERA in 16 starts. Weaver would go on to help the Cardinals win a World Series and the Angels went on paying his salary.

2007 was especially bad. It was the year that one Gary Matthews, Jr. signed a 5-year, and nearly $50 million contract that still haunts the Angels today. Matthews ended up being traded to the Mets after three miserable seasons with the Angels (with the Angels picking up most of his salary), where he floundered and ended up out of baseball. Matthews played his last game on June 2, 2010 while costing the Angels $22.3 million the last two years (including this one).

2007 also brought us Shea Hillenbrand. Remember that one? Did you just grimace? If you did, it’s because you probably remember that he signed for $6 million and ended up being released on July 9 after hitting .254 with 3 homeruns. More good money after bad.

Wait 2007 gets even better. That year also brought us Justin Speier and a 3-year, $12.75 million contract. Speier had one good year (his first) out of three. His final two years? Well it included a 5.03 ERA in 2008 and a 5.18 ERA in 2009 and ultimately his release on August 11, 2009.

I’m not done with 2007 yet. That year marked the season the extension of Kelvim Escobar kicked in. Escobar’s extension was for 3-years and $28.5 million. Shields also signed an extension for 3-years and $14.6 million.

Escobar had a fantastic 2007; however, he only managed to pitch in one game in the following two years while earning $19.5 million during those final two years. Shields’ extension didn’t kick in until 2008, where he had a stellar season; however, he proved to be utterly useless during the final two years of his contract with a 6.62 and 5.28 ERA in those years. Ugh.

I’m not making this stuff up folks. The numbers are fairly staggering, aren’t they?

In 2008 the Angels traded Orlando Cabrera (and his $10 million contract) to the Chicago White Sox for Jon Garland and his $12 million contract. Garland did win 14 games that year; however, he boasted a hefty 4.90 ERA that season as well. The move did pave the way for Erick Aybar to take over at shortstop; however, it is yet another example of the high cost of mediocre talent in Garland.

2009 brought us somewhat of a mixed bag in Brian Fuentes. Fuentes signed a 2-year $17.5 million deal and ended up leading the major league baseball with 48 saves, but he also blew 7 other opportunities and gave up a key homerun in the ALCS to Alex Rodriguez and the rest is as they say… “History.” Even though he led the league in saves, he was arguably the worst reliever to ever do that. In 2010 he was traded to the Minnesota Twins.

2009 also brought us the trade that sent Alex Torres, Matt Sweeney and Sean Rodriguez to the Tampa Bay Rays for Scott Kazmir (whose recent release prompted this whole post) and his mega contract that included salaries of $6 million in 2009, $8 million in 2010 and $12 million this year. His departure, while costly would have been even more costly had he stayed another year. Rather than paying him $13.5 million in 2012, the Angels will have to shell out $2.5 million in a buy-out. He will end up costing the Angels $22.5 million for the kind of production one would expect to get out of a mannequin.

The string of bad decisions continued in 2010 when the Angels signed the guy with the crooked hat. Yes, I’m talking about Fernando Rodney and his two-year, $11 million deal. Has he been worth it? I think we both know the answer to that, although I would entertain an argument either way.

Add to all of this the string of low cost, low risk signings like Andres Galarraga, Raul Mondesi, and Shane Halter (none of which panned out) and you have reason for skepticism (for what they might do next) regarding their entire decision process.

I didn’t do any calculations regarding the net loss of all the moves mentioned above, but I’m sure we can all agree that the number is substantial. I have to ask myself, what could the Angels have done with the money they spent on Kazmir and Matthews?

Think about it. Just don’t focus on it too much because your head might explode.

All of that being said, I know that the Angels have also made some very good moves via trade and free agency and that no front office is perfect. I just think that all of the decision mentioned above had to have had a negative impact on the product currently on the field and in the Angels' ability (or lack of) to continue to be major players in the free agency market. It also has hindered their ability to make any and all moves necessary to get them back to having a 2002-like season.

Did the combination of events make them gun shy on Carl Crawford? Will it hinder their ability to make a move at the deadline this year? Could the Angels have made a different move or two over the years that would have put them back in the World Series?

These are legitimate questions, don’t you think?

Look, I think Moreno is a great owner and I think Mike Scioscia is the best manager in the game. Do the math. What’s the problem? Is it Tony Reagins or even Bill Stoneman (from prior years)? I’m not going to point any fingers, but it’s a question that begs an answer in my opinion.

I know that some of the problems the Angels have had are related to injuries and are totally unpredictable, but some of them – such as the Gary Matthews, Jr. signing raised eyebrows around the country at the time.

I just think it’s foolish to ignore the history here. I have to question the analysis process that goes into some of the moves the front office has made. The Angels have the luxury of an owner with fairly deep pockets, but let’s face it – there has to be a limit to the kind of wasted money this team can lose. It might be time to pay the piper. It had to come to this eventually.

So… what’s next?

Well, for now – there are games to be played. More specifically, the Dodgers are coming to town and I’m looking forward to seeing the freeway series yet again. This never get’s old for me. The other stuff… well, it definitely does.

So let’s get after it. Anyone notice how well Vernon Wells is playing? Is he going to be a good investment after all? I sure hope so.

Go Angels!

The 2010 Angels Off Season (not suitable for the faint of heart)

Defeat is a bitter pill to swallow. I still have a bad taste in my mouth from the 2005 ALCS loss the Angels suffered to the Chicago White Sox and the 2009 ALCS loss to the New York Yankees. In each case the Angels were so close and yet so far. Sometimes there is a fine line between victory and defeat.

One play can change the momentum and ultimately the outcome of an entire series.

Losing those two series’ hurt more than usual because in each case, the Angels were knocking on the door of another World Series appearance. On top of that the Angels failed to make the play-offs in each of the following seasons.

In 2006 they won a very respectable 89 games, but finished second and not quite good enough for a wild card spot.

They followed up 2009 with a disappointing 80-82 record and a third place finish.

I usually deal with disappointing seasons by looking forward to the next one. My enthusiasm is usually fueled by what takes place in the off season. That didn’t happen in the winter prior to 2010 and it certainly isn’t happening this off season either.

I keep coming back to the statement Arte Moreno made to Bill Plaschke of the LA Times: "We know where our weaknesses are, we know where we are thin, we know where we have to go to market," Moreno said. "It's going to cost money, but our fans need to know what we're committed to winning."

I’m still waiting Arte.

He followed that up (via the LA Times) later on with this: "The fans want a competitive team, a winning team, and I'm committed to doing that, but I have two choices, either take a huge [financial] loss or start raising ticket prices. You look at the economic risk and the franchise risk. The reality is, can I write a check for the player? Yes. But is it smart business in the long term? I don't think so."

Funny, you haven’t raised ticket prices and you haven’t taken a huge financial loss either. You’ve basically done a lot of talking. Well, I’d rather watch a winner than listen to one.

What’s next? Are you going to lower beer prices again? That might buy you some good PR in some circles, but since I don’t drink it doesn’t hold a lot of water with me.

It wouldn’t be so bad if this was the first time things didn’t go our way, but there’s a pattern.

Take 2005 (off season prior to 2006) when Paul Konerko used the Angels to set his price for resigning with the Chicago White Sox. We heard stories that he was shopping for homes in So. Cal and how he liked the idea of being reunited with Mike Scioscia who knew Konerko from his days as a minor league manager in the Dodger organization. When all was said and done, Konerko returned to Chicago and a pattern of falling short had begun.

In 2006 (off season prior to 2007) the Alfonso Soriano sweepstakes even got out of hand. Moreno later admitted "We got so fond of one player, and then the market moved away from us."

While it was a good thing that they didn’t sign Soriano who hasn’t been worth the 8-year, $136 million he signed with Chicago; it also showed how badly an off season can go when you don’t have a viable backup plan. The Angels ended up signing Gary Matthews, Jr., Shea Hillenbrand, and Justin Speier. Good times.

In 2007 the Angels fell short in the Miguel Cabrera trade talks. Remember that? Remember this… "I've felt we had a deal with them twice," Moreno said of the Marlins, who apparently cut bait and decided they needed more in exchange for the 24-year-old slugger.

The Angels front office appeared confused... which has become a common perception. Just saying.

That being said; that was almost a happier time...

During the Cabrera negotiations in 2007 (off season prior to 2008) Moreno was also quoted as saying “"If you're looking at straight budget, we're over budget," Moreno said. "Yeah, I would [lose money] if I need to. It would be short-term. "We did that in '04. We were losing $20 million and people thought I was the stupidest guy on Earth when I signed all those guys (Bartolo Colon, Orlando Cabrera, extending Vladimir Guerrero). You have to believe long-term it's going to be a good investment. We felt we needed to step to the next level."

That was then, this is now.

Arte has been living off lowering beer prices and the signings he made in 2004 for quite a while now. He made a little splash with the Torii Hunter signing in 2008, but there have been plenty of times when Moreno and his GM’s (Tony Reagins and Bill Stoneman before him) were left at the negotiating table wondering what just happened.

It happened again in the off season prior to 2009 when Mark Teixeira and his agent Scott Boras left the Angels high and dry. Moreno went to $160 million, but came up $20 million short. Stories leaked out about how frustrated and angry Moreno was with Boras and the process. Once again, the perception that the front office operated in a state of frustration/confusion surfaced again.

Time after time, Moreno and whoever the GM at the time happened to be were left behind and seemingly stunned by what happened. You’d think they’d learn from past experiences. After all, they have plenty of experience in this arena….

Let’s recap how the Angels did in achieving the #1 goal in each off season (years are listed for the season in which they played on the teams they signed with).

2004: Angels sign Vladimir Guerrero. Some claim this deal fell in the Angels lap after the Dodgers failed to get the deal done.

2005: Carlos Beltran signed with the Mets (Angels sign Steve Finley and Orlando Cabrera). Finley was a great back up plan wans't he? *cough*

2006: Paul Konerko resigns with the White Sox. (Angels fail to sign any significant free agents).

2007: Alfonso Soriano signs with the Cubs (Thankfully). (Then again, Angels ended up with GMJ)...

2008: Miguel Cabrera traded to the Tigers (from Florida Marlins). (Angels sign Torii Hunter - a move made necessary by the poor 2007 signing of GMJ).

2009: Mark Teixeira signs with the Yankees (Angels sign Bobby Abreu and Brian Fuentes).

2010: John Lackey signs with the Red Sox (Angels sign Hideki Matsui, Joel Pineiro and Fernando Rodney. Angels also lost Chone Figgins and Vladimir Guerrero to free agency, but they weren't part of the team's plans).

2011: Carl Crawford signs with the Red Sox and Adrian Beltre signs with the Rangers. (Angels? Well, we're still waiting)...

So… basically, the Angels signed/acquired their top priority in only two out of the last seven off seasons; which means they're hitting .285. Woo-hoo.

Let’s not forget the Angels also signed Steve Finley for 2005, Jeff Weaver for 2006, and just because I can’t mention it enough – GMJ for 2007. Oh the memories.

To be fair, the Angels have made some good trades over the past few years acquiring Dan Haren and Mark Teixeira. They also Acquired Maicer Izturis and Juan Rivera for Jose Guillen prior to 2005 and that proved to be a good move as well. Then there’s the deal for Scott Kazmir, which may work out… right? Anyone? Anyone? I would even say that signing Matt Palmer in 2009 was a nice little move.

Now, I know that no front office is perfect. Every team makes good and bad moves. I just happen to be of the opinion that the Angels front office isn’t performing at the level we expect. I also know they’ll ultimately be judged by the product on the field. I really and truly appreciate all that happened between 2002 and 2009.

I freely admit that until last season, Angel fans didn’t have much to complain about (even 2003 was acceptable because we were all still giddy about 2002), but that’s all changed in a big way. Our confidence in the front office has been shaken; in fact, it's been rocked like an earthquake.

There's a perception that has developed over time that Reagins and Moreno are stubborn, inflexible, ego-driven and hard to deal with. Wait, there's more... at times they appear to be baseball's versioin of the Keystone Cops (chasing free agents they can't catch) and to make matters worse, they make statements that are incredibly funny - even if they're not meant to be.

Once the darlings of baseball; the media and the blogosphere is now pounding Arte Moreno and Tony Reagins and rightfully so.

What are they saying? Let's take a look...

Danny Knobler (CBS Sports): “So Adrian Beltre is headed for Texas. Anyone want to hear what Arte Moreno has to say now?”

“I don't.”

“It doesn't matter, because now not only have the Angels shown they're not prepared to compete financially with the big boys, but they've shown they can't even compete financially with the big boys in their own division.”

“There's still more than a month to go to spring training, which means that theoretically there's still time for the Angels to salvage their winter. But while there's still time, the shelves are now bare.”

Tom Krasovic (Fanhouse): “Even if they were shopping in a sellers' market, this seemed like the offseason for the Angels to gulp and commit the biggest contract in Angels history. Their farm system isn't as good as the Texas farm system and may not be as good as the Oakland farm system. On the trade market, the Angels are known for being overly rigid. All the more reason to go after Carl Crawford hard and fast.”

Also from his column: "If they're being scared off from premium players in the market, they're in big trouble," said the AL executive. "They don't have a lot of talent coming up. They are known for being difficult to trade with. They are going to have to spend wisely in free agent to make up that difference, but that's getting harder and harder to do with what's out there."

Jon Morosi (Fox Sports): “The Angels can be excused for not lavishing $142 million on Crawford. This is different. The price for Beltre was nearly $50 million less. The fit was even better. I’m beginning to wonder if O.C. stands for Oddly Comatose.”

"The Angels must put together a more potent lineup than they did last year, when they barely produced more runs than the Kansas City Royals. Morales will help, but he can’t do it alone. And I doubt general manager Tony Reagins is enamored with the external options at third base. The remaining free agents are unexciting, and the trade market features . . . well . . . Michael Young."
Jon Heyman (Sports Illustrated): “There's still plenty of shopping for several teams to do, and not just for the Angels, who have taken the collar so far this winter and are up to plan D. Or is it plan G or even plan M?”

“Whatever it is, it doesn't look like they've had their heads in the game this entire winter.”

“They claim not to have made any offer at all to top target Carl Crawford, disputing reports they offered an absurdly low $108 million for six years and other reports they were prepared to go to $140 million or more, if only they'd gotten their act together in time. They did offer Adrian Beltre $70 million over five years, and apparently they set a short three-day deadline that wasn't taken very seriously. "I don't understand their ultimatum strategy,'' one competing executive said.”

David Saltzer (AngelsWin): “As a fan, I cannot recall ever being this frustrated and disappointed in the team as I have been this year. While losing Nolan Ryan may have been the worst offseason decision ever, and losing Wally Joyner hurt more, both of those off seasons pale in comparison to 2011.”

blithescribe (MLB blogs): "So Adrian Beltre is a Ranger and the Angels missed the boat again. I understand that the free agent market got outrageously expensive again this year. Under normal circumstances, I think sticking to one's principals is laudable but, right now, claiming to stick to their principals just looks like the Angels front office is making a piss poor excuse for terrible performance. We didn't strike out this off season, we barely even bothered to step up to the plate."

I'd say the natives are restless. I wonder how Arte is sleeping these days? I've said it before and I'll say it agin... time to get to work.

Optimistic, but concerned

I’ve become accustomed to the Angels way of doing things; to the way they fly in the face of conventional wisdom as dished out by the so-called “experts” and simply do their own thing. It’s hard to argue with the results given the overall success of the franchise since 2002.

This is without any question the golden era of Angels' baseball. There’s never been a better time to be an Angels fan and I’m thankful for their success. I’ve bought into how they do business over the past several years and believe the Angels have the best owner and a manager who is second to no one.

Never-the-less, I have hard a very hard time understanding this off season. Now mind you, this is coming from someone who can be accused at times of drinking the company kool-aid and wearing rose colored glasses.

If you listen to enough sports talk radio – you will hear a lot of Angel apologists telling anyone who has a complaint or concern to be patient and trust what the team is doing because their track record has been so good. It’s as if it’s become some sort of sin to question anything the Angels are doing. Our concerns are often labeled as being “silly” and some believe to question is to panic and we shouldn’t ever do that.

The thing is even though the Angels have been highly successful, that doesn’t mean they’ll continue to be good to great every year. Let’s face it, they’ve stumbled here and there with some of their signings of players like Shea Hillenbrand, Steve Finley, Justin Speier, Jeff Weaver, J. C. Romero, and Gary Matthews, Jr. to name a few. Granted, no team is perfect and the Angels have been able to overcome some mistakes for the most part.

That being said, you have to figure that some of these mistakes are finally catching up with them. Clearly the Angels would have more flexibility in their payroll if they didn’t have to pay Matthews $23 million over the next two years and still had to pay Speier’s contract even though he is no longer on their roster.

These mistakes become magnified when Angel fans watch players who have been cornerstones of the organization leave via free agency only to be replaced by players who seem older, slower and even in decline.

This brings me to their latest free agent acquisition in Fernando Rodney. In my last post, I outlined some of my reasons for believing he was not the best option. Granted, the Angels front office know more about baseball than I could ever possibly imagine, but that doesn’t mean I can’t question this move.

My understanding was that the Angels didn’t offer Darren Oliver arbitration because they believed he would become too costly and weren’t willing to go above the $3.655 million he made in 2009. They gambled that they’d be able to re-sign him at a good price and they lost. They then go out and sign Rodney for two years and $11 million, despite numbers that would seem to indicate he might be in decline.

On one hand I would like to trust Tony Reagins and Mike Scioscia on this matter, but quite honestly; I’m having a hard time with it.

One of my favorite sites – mlbtraderumors.com ranked Rodney 47th on their list of the top 50 free agents. They even predicted that "no one would want to pay a premium for his 37 saves."

I really can’t recall reading anything positive about Rodney and instead read many times that he wasn’t likely to land a closer job with another team. When the Phillies were reported to be interested in signing him for two years and $12 million there appeared to be some snickering going on.

So… what’s a fan like me supposed to think when the Angels come around and give the same guy $11 million?

It’s a ways away from April 5, 2010 (opening day) and I’m certain that when that day rolls around, I’ll be as gun-ho as any fan about the Angels chances because that’s what we fans do. I know games aren’t won on paper and anything can happen in baseball. I’d simply like my team’s chances a little more if they would do some things that actually made sense to me.

Don’t mock me because I have concerns and please don’t spout the mantra that we should blindly trust the Angels front office because of their success. If you do, I’ll accuse you of being complacent and over confident; two attributes that can easily lead to disaster.

At the end of the day I trust the Angels and believe they’ll compete again in 2010, but I refuse just blindly follow and not question some of the things they do.

For the record, I’m very excited about Brandon Wood, delighted that Joe Saunders is off the trade rumor circuit and I can’t wait to see what Kendry Morales will do in 2010. I’m also thrilled that Torii Hunter plays on my favorite team and that Mike Scioscia will be leading this team for many, many years.

It’s also important to note that for me, 2002 is starting to become a distant memory and I fully expected the Angels to have won another title by now. My expectations have been raised and even though I appreciate what they’ve accomplished, I expect better.