Be careful what you wish for

I love four game winning streaks. I love any kind of winning, but when they involve streaks of multiple games they’re extra special. Never mind that two of the Angels victories came after 30 innings, which is basically the equivalent of 3.3 games. It’s still good. Too bad the Angels didn’t receive 3.3 wins for their efforts. Never-the-less – winning is always fun.

That being said, the question remains; is this too little, too late? On one hand I’d like to enjoy the victories at a basic level and appreciate the fact that the Angels played well enough to win. On the other, I can’t help but wonder if they have any chance what-so-ever at catching the Texas Rangers?

I know strangers things have happened and it’s only natural to speculate about the possibility. However, the reality is the odds are against the Angels. I just hope they finish strong.

Look, the Angels have 19 games remaining and their elimination number is 10. Any combination of Ranger victories and/or Angel defeats adding up to ten over the next 19 games and the Angels are mathematically eliminated.

You can run all the scenarios through your head. When you do the math; again, the odds are stacked against the Angels. And when you factor in the Oakland Athletics also being ahead of the Angels the water really becomes murky. Let’s just say the fat lady is warming up.

I know I know who am I to rain on the parade? Let’s just say I’m trying to keep a little perspective. Right now, my immediate hope is that Texas doesn’t roll into town next week to clinch the division. The idea of watching them celebrate in our stadium is enough to make me projectile vomit. Just saying.

Speaking of the nauseating… let’s talk about the role of the closer on the Angels. In my opinion, the much maligned Brian Fuentes was doing a pretty good job. Yes, he made some games interesting, but he had come to the point of being pretty consistent. He had saved 17 of his last 18 opportunities. His ERA had dropped considerably from June 20th on.

Never-the-less, Angel fans clamored for Fernando Rodney to be inserted into the closer role and wished to see Fuentes sent off to parts unknown. Well, be careful what you wish for.

Since August 30, Rodney has blown three out of eight chances. Despite that the Angels did win two of those games; but even with that, Rodney has given Angel fans more to moan about.

Personally, I don’t really have a beef with Rodney and I didn’t really have a problem with Fuentes. The way I see it – closers are basically a hit or miss deal. If your closer isn’t named Mariano Rivera, you don’t know what you’re going to get from year to year.

Look at who has struggled this year. Jonathan Papelbon has blown seven saves and so has Billy Wagner of the Braves. Francisco Cordero has blown 8 saves for the division leading Cincinnati Reds. Jonathon Broxton has six blown saves and has basically lost his role as the Dodgers closer.

Closers can be great one year and a total bust the next and vice versa. I venture to guess that if you ask just about any fan base about their closer – none are entirely pleased with theirs. Even the great Mariano has blown three opportunities (not that Yankee fans are complaining). Nobody is perfect; at least not this year. In fact, only a handful of guys have been even close to perfect. The best of the bunch? Joaquin Soria of the Royals who has 37 saves in 39 chances; Rafael Soriano who has saved 42 out of 45 games; Heath Bell of the Padres with 41 out 44 and Neftali Feliz of the Rangers who has saved 36 out of 39.

Brad Lidge is the only guy in recent memory (not including those suspected of steroid use – hello “Game Over”) who has had a perfect season (Lidge saved 41 of 41 in 2008 for the Phillies). Keep in mind he blew 8 saves the year prior in 2007 with the Astros and then blew a mind boggling 11 games in 2009 with the Phillies.

When you think about it... or at least when I think about it - Brian Fuentes didn’t look so bad.

Think about this – There are 34 closers who have at least ten saves on the year (as of 9/14/10). That group has saved 868 games and blown 145. That’s an 85% success rate (think of someone saving 34 out of 40 games). Most people would consider that a horrible percentage. The percentages dip even lower for those who have save totals between 3 and 9. That group which includes 22 pitchers has only saved 112 out of 174 games for a horrid 64% (think of approximately 26 saves out of 40).

That’s a lot of anxious moments for fans throughout baseball. Something else to think about - there are 30 major league teams and 121 different players have at least one save and even more who have had "save opportunities."



How many times has one guy started the year as the closer only to be replaced by someone else? I don't have that answer handy - but Angel fans should think about the year K-Rod walked and how many assumed Jose Arredondo would become the closer. Whatever happened to him you ask? Exactly...

My point is that everyone wants a "shut down" closer who is perfect night in and night out while the reality is - that pitcher simply doesn’t exist. Before you start booing your closer or wishing for someone else to take on that role, you’d better realize how volatile the role is to begin with and just having a guy who can handle that kind of rollercoaster ride is not a bad thing even if he blows 5, 6 or 7 games in a year now and then. We all have to temper our expectations when it comes to closing games.

Fuentes would have been fine. Rodney will probably be fine, all things considered.

You watch - when Rafael Soriano hits the free agent market this year - some team, some where will over pay for his services. In my opinion, he doesn't have the track record to warrant a long term deal, but someone will give him one. It will be a move that team will more than likely regret in the long run.

Wishing for win streaks = good thing. Wishing for someone else to close your games for your team = a dangerous proposition.

Angels non-tender three

The Angels non-tendered three players yesterday; Jose Arredondo, Dustin Moseley, and Matt Brown. The players become free agents, free to sign with any team. Each has an interesting story and history with the Angels and Angel fans.

Jose Arredondo had an incredibly bright future. After his astounding 2008 season with the Angels, many Angel fans were ready to anoint Arredondo as the Angels next closer. Francisco Rodriguez was about to become a free agent and despite saving a record 62 games in 2008, many Angel fans were ready for a change. Mostly because many chose to focus on the seven blown saves and the countless times he put their hearts through roller-coaster-like finishes.

When the Angels signed Brian Fuentes as their new closer, some fans gave pause and wondered why? Arredondo clearly looked like he was ready to step in and become the next big thing. Well, baseball is a funny game. One season a player looks invincible and the next he looks like he doesn’t belong at all. Such was the case for Arredondo who struggled mightily in 2009.

Turns out, Arredondo may not have been healthy, thus explaining his poor season. On Friday the Angels announced that Arredondo would have Tommy John surgery and miss the entire 2010 season. Adding insult to injury, he was then non-tendered.

This is why you can never have too much pitching and also goes to show that Angel fans don’t make the best general managers. A once bright future now appears to have a black cloud hovering over it.

Matt Brown is another curious Angel with an interesting history. In 2008 Brown had a solid AAA season with the Salt Lake Bees; hitting .320 with a .953 OPS. Many fans saw him as the heir apparent to Robb Quinlan’s role on the team and in some cases saw even a bigger role for him. Brown even had impressive Spring Trainings and did everything asked of him.

Then 2009 happened. Unlike the previous two seasons, Brown never got a call up and struggled in Salt Lake City; hitting just .245 with a .748 OPS. Now 27 years old, Brown no longer looks like a promising prospect and his window for a career in the majors looks to be all but closed. Perhaps he became frustrated about not getting an opportunity, despite solid minor league numbers. Perhaps we simply saw the best we were ever going to see in 2008. In any case, Brown will most likely have to prove himself elsewhere in 2010.

Dustin Moseley is one of the most well spoken young men I have ever seen. When his friend and teammate Nick Adenhart died tragically, Moseley stepped in front of the cameras and delivered an emotional tribute to his buddy



The video is a permanet link on my list of favorites. It's moments like the one in the video that make baseball players more than just names and numbers to me. I root for players not only because of their statistics and what they can do on the field, but also because many of them are fine young men. I will miss Moseley.

No matter what Moseley does or doesn’t do moving forward, I will always remember him for the way he honored Nick. You hate to see young men of such character leaving your favorite team. Moseley spent parts of the last four seasons in the Angels rotation, but also spent most of the last two on the disabled list. We probably never saw the best he could do and that’s unfortunate.

All three are now footnotes in the Angels history book. Each showed some promise; however, in two of the cases (Moseley and Arredondo) injuries got the better of them. Baseball can be a cruel game and an even meaner business. Sometimes good guys just don’t make it.

I wish all three the best. Perhaps they’ll find their way back on the Angels roster down the road; although that’s unlikely.

DGXRA25JZWTR

Moving on without Figgy

I’m not going to kid you. I’m going to miss Chone Figgins. I’m going to miss that infectious smile of his. I’m going to miss thinking every time he gets on base, he is going to score. I’m going to miss seeing him play third base like a gold glove infielder. Yes, I’m going to miss just about everything about Figgy.

It’s going to be very strange seeing him in a Mariners uniform when they come to town. It’s going to be weird cheering against him. But this is what happens in baseball.

So be it. I will move on. We will all move on. But how? Well, the best way I believe to do that in this case is by focusing on Brandon Wood.

Brandon Wood is the kind of player who inspires a great deal of hope. We’ve seen glimpses of his potential. His 2005 season in Rancho Cucamonga is still pretty fresh in our memories. That year he put the baseball world on notice with 43 homeruns, 115 RBI, and a.321 batting average.

Ever since that year, visions of Roy Hobbs have been dancing in our heads (or at least mine). Baseball fans and experts have been talking about Brandon Wood for five years now. Any time some fan from another team posts a trade idea on a baseball message board, Wood is the guy they want back. I’m betting every time another team’s GM calls the Angels, Wood is the guy they want too. Every fan base wants a special player to come through their organization that they can call their own. Brandon Wood represents that guy for Angel fans every where.

He’s our Matt Wieters; our Ryan Braun. He’s the next big thing; the chosen one, if you will. He’s had enough acolades to give him a big head and yet, he’s got the right attitude.

Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times interviewed Wood recently and Wood told him, “I'm going in to spring training to win a job. That keeps you on your toes. If you think that job is yours, you might get lazy. I've got to be ready to work, rather than sitting back and saying I paid my dues, I waited for my time."

It looks like he will get his chance. From Kevin Baxter of the LA Times: As for Wood, Scioscia said "he has to have the mind-set to come in there and win a position, and realistically that's what has to happen. He has to come out and win a spot, and we do have some depth that we'll use if it's going to make us a better team. But we definitely want to give Brandon every opportunity to show his talent, because he's a very, very talented young player."

I say it's time to let that talnet shine. Brandon, it’s time for you to get to work. Angel fans have been waiting for you. Kendry Morales showed you how it’s done. The two of you can make history and become a force together. I have visions. Visions of Morales and Wood becoming the best one-two punch in baseball. I know, I’m getting way ahead of myself here, but that’s part of being a baseball fan. In fact, it’s a fun part of being a fan.

I say let the Brandon Wood/Kendry Morales era begin. Some may mock the idea. Others may even laugh, but some of us are ready to believe. I can’t wait to see what Wood can do with regular at bats. In many ways this is what baseball is all about. It’s about youth being served and hard work finally paying off.

It’s about Garvey, Russell, Lopes and Cey. Say what? Yes, I know they were Dodgers, but they were staples in the Dodgers infield for years. Dodger fans knew every time they went to the ball park or tuned in to a Dodger broadcast, they were going to see those four guys in the lineup every day.

Next year, the Angels could have an infield that is completely home grown. Morales, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar and Wood. It would be an entire infield drafted and developed by the Angels. They could be together for year to come. That’s way cool, don’t you think?.

So, even though I will miss Chone Figgins (as will my wife), there is a bright side and that my friends will be in the form of a guy wearing #3.

Hot Stove Update: According to Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun the Angels have offered Joe Saunders, Erick Aybar and Peter Bourjos to Toronto for Roy Halladay. I said it before and I'll say it again. I'm not buying it. Just sign Lackey. Why give up players and create more holes in your lineup on top of having to sign Halladay for more money than it would take to sign Lackey? The cost is simply too high.

One off season update: Jose Arredondo isn't looking so good. He's having elbow trouble again and appears to be in the dog house, per Bill Plunkett of the OC Register.

Talking Turkey - Post Thanksgiving

Okay, so this is probably the longest I have gone without posting something to this blog. I guess I needed a break and Thanksgiving was the right time to do it. Well, Thanksgiving has come and gone and the Hot Stove season hasn’t really been cooking up anything special thus far. Never-the-less the big question is always what’s going on?

Things should start to develop this week. Tomorrow is a big day; it’s the last day teams can offer their free agents arbitration.

In the Angels case, they have to decide whether or not to offer arbitration to John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Darren Oliver and Vladimir Guerrero. The Angels are likely to offer arbitration to Lackey, Figgins and Oliver. All three have Type A status and if they choose not to accept arbitration, the Angels will receive a compensation pick(s) (in most, but not all cases from the team’s that sign them) should any of them sign elsewhere.

Should any of the three accept arbitration they would be foregoing the free agent market and accepting the salary they will be offered via the arbitration process. Lackey and Figgins are highly unlikely to accept; however, there’s a chance Oliver will (as he did last year).

If the Angels don’t offer arbitration, teams are free to sign Type A players without losing any draft picks. In Guerrero’s case, it’s not likely the Angels will offer him arbitration; however, since he’s a Type B free agent any team that signs him will not lose a pick. The reason the Angels aren’t likely to offer him arbitration is because they would either like to move on without him or make him part of a back up plan and bring him back at a reduced salary.

It’s always a telling sign when a team offers or doesn’t offer a player arbitration. It’s usually an indication as to whether or not the team wants the player back. Last year Jon Garland and Francisco Rodriguez were both offered arbitration and both refused; a move that ended up costing Garland some money as he signed for less than what he most likely would have received had he accepted.

Again, tomorrow is the deadline and Type A players not offered arbitration become a little more appealing to teams since they won’t lose any draft picks. This happened with Troy Glaus after the 2004 season. The Angels were ready to move on without Glaus and didn’t offer him arbitration (he might have accepted had they offered it). Glaus went on to sign with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Players who refuse arbitration and have Type A status can be less appealing to some clubs. This happened to Orlando Cabrera last year – who found signing with a team harder because of his Type A status. This year Cabrera made sure his contract included a clause prohibiting a team from offering him arbitration in hopes it would make him more appealing to teams looking for a shortstop.

Hopefully, that all makes sense. Okay, so now what, right?

Well according to Mike DiGiovanna and Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times it looks like the Angels only have about $12 million to spend. That’s if you believe the Angels will stick to roughly the same budget as they had in 2009. According to the LA Times article – Reagins claims the Angels have money to spend in free agency, but may have to be creative to really fill out their roster.

Translation – the Angels will spend above their budget if the situation is one they deem beneficial to the team.

At this point in time all we can do is wait and see. Obviously, Lackey and Figgins are key to what the Angels do next. Signing or not signing one or both is going to dictate what the Angels do next. That may not play out until December 7-10, 2009 when the winter meetings take place in Indianapolis, Indiana. Historically, this is when activity (signings and trades) really heat up for all teams.

If you’re like me, it’s hard to figure out what’s going to happen. That being said, it doesn’t necessarily stop us from trying. Depending on who you read and when you read them, you could believe just about any number of scenarios taking place. Even still, if history repeats itself, the Angels will do something unpredictable.

If John Lackey resigns, the rotation will be set with Saunders, Kazmir, Weaver and Santana filling out the rest of the rotation. If Lackey departs, the Angels will either look internally to one of Dustin Moseley, Sean O’Sullivan or Trevor Bell. Trevor Reckling is a remote possibility as well – but he’s only pitched as high as AA ball. The other option would be for the Angels to either sign a free agent (possibly Randy Wolf) or make a trade (the Roy Halladay rumors are still out there). If I’m the Angels I have to believe the best route to take is to simply resign Lackey (even though that may not be all that simple).

If Chone Figgins returns, it will mean that Brandon Wood will either be traded (which could be a more distinct possibility if Lackey doesn’t return and the Angels need chips to trade), relegated to the a utility role of some sort or we could possibly see Figgins moved to the outfield, Abreu moved to a DH role and Wood given a shot at third base.

There is also the curious predicament of Gary Matthews, Jr. and the $23 million owed him over the next two years. He will be difficult to trade. Perhaps the Angels should make him the every day left fielder, move Rivera to right and have Abreu DH. Stranger things have happened and this scenario could play out should the Angels not resign Figgins.

If neither Lackey nor Figgins return – any number of things could happen. The Angels could make a serious play for Jason Bay, but are more likely to focus on pitching. In my mind they have to maintain a rotation that is solid 1-5 and they also need to replace what Vlad Guerrero used to provide them. Kendry Morales had a great year in 2009 and Hunter was on his way to doing the same, but they are not enough.

And…. what about the bull pen? Brian Fuentes, Jason Bulger and Kevin Jepsen appear to be locks. Matt Palmer most likely has a role as well. Scot Shields will be back. The rest will depend on whether or not Jose Arredondo can rebound from a sub par 2009 and whether or not Darren Oliver will be back. That’s seven names in the mix as of now. If the Angels add some bull pen help – someone would have to be moved or demoted to the minors.

Changes aren’t likely at center field (Torii Hunter), first base (Kendry Morales), second base (Howie Kendrick), shortstop (Erick Aybar), catcher (Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis) and Maicer Izturis is sure to serve in his super utility role again. Also - Juan Rivera is a pretty solid bet to be in one of the corner outfield spots.

The 2010 Angels have the potential to look very much like the 2009 version on one hand and on the other, look like a very different team. Other than Brandon Wood there isn’t anyone looming to make an impact from within.

Terry Evans is the only other possibility and he’s likely to become the 4th or 5th outfielder. The Angels are out of option on Evans and he will either occupy a 25 man roster spot or take his talent elsewhere. Evans is an interesting prospect. He has tons of speed and the ability to hit the long ball, but for whatever reason doesn’t appear to be high on anyone’s list. A former 47th round draft choice of the St. Louis Cardinals, he came to the Angels for Jeff Weaver in 2006. When Spring Training camps open in 2010 he will 28, which is considered "old" for players still trying to find their way on to big league rosters.

In 2009, Evans put up monster numbers in Salt Lake City; hitting .291 while belting 26 homers and driving in 90 runs. He also had 33 doubles and stole 28 bases. He had a .860 OPS, but struck out a whopping 146 times and that last stat may be the one thing that has the experts limiting his potential.

Hot Stove Update... Elsewhere:

You know it’s a slow day when the biggest Hot Stove news includes the Mets interest in Henry Blanco per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Mets signing Alex Cora, the Pirates signing Will Ledesma and the Cardinals resigning Jason LaRue.

More...

Andruw Jones signed with the Chicago White Sox last week. I had predicted the Cubs.... so I had the right city, but the wrong team. Jones signed for $500,000 despite hitting just .214 last year. Just for the sake of fun, let's say Jones has now set the market for outfielders.

If you believe Jason Bay is 50 times better than Jones (Of course you do), it would mean that Bay will receive a contract for $25 million a year. Shazam!

Elsewhere, Alex Gonzalez signed with the Toronto Blue Jays (I had predicted the Houston Astros); possibly signaling the end of any speculation that Marco Scutaro stays in Toronto. The rumors of him going to Boston still seem to be "hot;" although, it appears the Dodgers are also a possibility.