There's something about Joe

I’m predicting big things for Joe Saunders in 2010. I know that’s probably not a big surprise since I’ve gone on record several times to tell you all that I’m a huge Joe Saunders fan. Never-the-less, in this case I’m not just saying things just to say it.

Fact is I expect big things out of the rotation as a whole. I’ve already gone over my thoughts on Jered Weaver and Scott Kazmir. Now it’s time to pump up the volume on Joe.

Look we’ve already seen glimpses of what he can do. He had an all-star season in 2008 and had he not been injured last year, he probably would have duplicated and possibly even improved upon that effort in 2009. Not being able to get full extension in his shoulder was a major contributor to his struggles. That’s not an excuse; that’s just the way it is.

Even still, we saw some good stuff from Joe last year; like the night he bested CY Young award winner Zack Greinke with a complete game, 1-0 shut out on May 9, 2009. You know what I loved about that game? Joe’s reaction when he won. When the game ended, Joe had that “boy that was fun” look on his face. It wasn’t a “look at me, I’m the great K-Rod demonstration;” it was more along the lines of “how about that” as he slapped his glove in celebration.

I loved it. Cheryl (my wife) loved it. He bested one of the top notch pitchers in the game. I’m sure I was yelling “that’s what I’m talking about!”

That night was vintage Joe. That was a guy with quiet confidence finding his way into the spotlight organically. He was just doing his thing and having fun doing it. You have to love that.

If you’re not a Joe Saunders fan yet, stick around – you will be.

He’s not the kind of guy who grabs headlines. Guys who pitch to contact rarely are, but let me tell you – Joe’s got game. I’ve lamented plenty of times about the great season he had in 2008 when he lead the Angels starters in wins and ERA. If he’s healthy (and I’m assuming he will be) I see no reason why he can’t get back to having another season like the one in 2008.

Now, I may be in the minority in that thinking, as people like Bill James seems to disagree. He projects Saunders to go 10-10 with a respectable 4.15 ERA and a FIP of 4.41. Most projections have him improving on his 2009 season, but none appear to have him coming close to what he did just two years ago.

I mean 10-10? Really? Someone get Vegas on the line, I need to put down a bet.

Joe is all of 28 years old and I believe he’s about to enter into the prime of his career. He showed how good he could be when he came off the DL last season. In the 8 starts after coming off the DL on August 26, 2009 he gave up three runs just once, two runs five times, didn’t allow any runs once and gave up a run on one other start.

He was Smokin’ Joe Saunders during that stretch. He went 7-1 in those games. Yeah, yeah, I know wins aren’t necessarily the best indicator of pitching success. So relax, winning seven games is a good thing. Trust me on this.

I believe those last eight games were more indicative of Saunders’ ability than most of the prior games when he was battling injury. Now, I may be a Saunders homer, but I don’t think that’s an unreasonable assumption, do you?

Here’s another thought; Joe will most likely be the #2, #3 or #4 starter and that means he will usually be facing other #2's, #3’s and #4’s. I have to say; I like his chances against those guys on any given night. Now, I know schedules don’t always pan out that way, but it isn’t a reach by any means.

So there you have it. I’m expecting big things from Joe Saunders. The 2010 rotation is going to be something special. I believe they will push one another and that there will be a friendly competition to out do one another. These are young guys, with a great deal of confidence and talent. They may be the best 1-5 staff in the big leagues.

Even though there has been an influx of top-of-the-rotation type guys coming into the AL West; like Cliff Lee, Ben Sheets and Rich Harden joining the likes of Felix Hernandez, I’ll take the Angels starting five over any other five starters on any other given team in the AL West. Can I get a boo-ya?

Now… about that Maicer Izturis signing. I’ve read where some Angel fans are wondering if Izturis’ well-deserved three year, $10 million contract spells some sort of bad news for Howie Kendrick and/or Brandon Wood. Well, in a word – no. However, the fact that some fans are even thinking that way is a great indicator as to how good Izturis is.

Might Maicer as Rex Hudler would say, “has skills.” He’s an asset and the Angels were wise to lock him up for three years. He’s much more than a bench player; he’s a solid utility guy who will easily get 300-350 AB’s. He’s also a very…. (now, get ready for this because I’m going to use one of those phrases that drives some stat heads crazy)… a very “clutch” hitter. Ooh, I think I heard a couple of veins pop on some foreheads out there.

It was time to pay Izturis and that’s not a bad reflection on Kendrick or Wood; it’s a great reflection on Izturis’ value to the Angels. That’s it folks; so, let’s not get crazy.

By the way, some of you may have noticed that the guy I was hoping the Angels would sign to fill in for the role formerly played by Robb Quinlan; Chad Tracy was signed by the Cubs.

I’m still trying to figure out who will end up backing up Kendry Morales at 1B. Izturis has 2B, 3B, and SS covered, but I can’t see a guy who’s all of 5’8” backing up Morales. So, who’s still available?

Well, there’s Hank Blalock (a popular choice among Angel fans); however, I think he’s a train wreck defensively and hits enough bombs to probably warrant a full time DH job somewhere else. Perhaps someone like Ryan Garko (who went to Servite High School in Anaheim) could fill that role.

Oh and before anyone brings it up (actually I’m too late on this), let’s just say “NO” to bringing back Darin Erstad for that role. I think there’s some kind of unwritten rule about guys who take out ads in the local paper to thank the fans when they leave, not being able to come back to that team. Those kind of good-byes are final, even though it was a tremendous gesture on Erstad’s part.

By the way, I’m still waiting for one of those from the guy who went to Boston, but I’m not holding my breath.

One last thing... today is my late father's birthday. I miss him more than words can say. I know he would have loved this blog.

The Quest for a "5"

It appears the Angels are in search mode for a fifth starter I know, I know… I can see you yawning now because it’s not exactly the kind of headline grabbing news you expected this off season. Well, whether or not they’re actually looking depends on what you read or who you listen to. Clearly someone has to step up to join a rotation that will include Joe Saunders, Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir and Ervin Santana.

Now, if you believe the company line from Tony Reagins about being “fine with the lineup they have” – the Angels will be looking internally among Matt Palmer, Sean O’Sullivan, Trevor Bell and Anthony Ortega. I can hear the “bor-ing” chants now.

Of that group Palmer clearly has the best chance to make the opening day rotation; however, I believe his best role would be in long relief.

Now if you don’t believe the “company line,” there are a number of possibilities still looking for work. The most popular rumor comes to us from Sam Miller of the OC Register, who posted on the OC Register’s Angel blog that sources have the Angels and Blue Jays as the front runners to land Aroldis Chapman from Cuba. Reports have contract offers at $21 million (as of yesterday).

Really, Toronto? They have money to spend? On a guy who would cost $21 million and be at least a year or two from making the bigs? The same team that recently cut payroll? I’m just asking… And is it really a choice between the Angels and Jays? I mean I could write a whole blog and then some about why if those are the two choices, the Angels have to be a slam dunk. Forgive me, I’m just thinking out loud here.

Even Peter Gammons believes the Angels will sign Chapman.

That being said, there are no sure things. We even learned today the Boston Red Sox are still in the mix, at least according to Gordon Edes of ESPN. There are also reports that a decision could come any day now. Of course (again depending on what you want to believe), you can probably even take that with a grain of salt.

The interesting thing about Chapman (again depending on who you believe, etc.) is that he’s either close to being ready for the major leagues or will have to start his career in the lower levels of minor league baseball. I find it highly unlikely that this 21/22 year old (I’ve seen him listed at both ages) could step on to any major league roster and contribute in 2010. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’d be a great sign and I do believe the Angels are interested; I just don’t think he’s an option for the 2010 rotation.

So, let’s move on; shall we?

Lyle Spencer of mlb.com answered questions from fans recently and was broached about the possibility of the Angels signing Jon Garland, who pitched for the team in 2008. Spencer wrote “My sense is that the Angels intend to acquire a fifth starter in free agency and nobody in the market makes more practical sense than Garland. There is the element of familiarity with the club and its catchers, from his 2008 season in Anaheim, and his remarkable durability. You plug the guy in and forget about that spot in the rotation. He never misses a start.”

Spencer continues, “Garland had a slightly better year statistically overall with the D-backs and Dodgers in '09 -- his ERA fell from 4.90 to 4.01 -- than with the Angels. He's 30, and he'll give you 200 innings and 10-15 wins. The only question is whether he'll accept a deal that will fit him into a relatively tight Angels budget with eight arbitration cases waiting to be resolved.”

I have to agree with Spencer; Garland makes a lot of sense. Now I know the majority of Angel fans are focused on whether or not the Angels can acquire a top of the rotation guy; however, I think it’s more realistic to see them going down this road. I know it’s not as “sexy” an option to most fans, but the Angels have never been about what’s necessarily popular with their fans (and I’m okay with that).

The question with Garland is most likely going to be about money (no big surprise, right?). Last year Garland made $7.25 million; that after making $12 million in 2008 with the Angels. He then hit free agency in 2009 (declining arbitration from the Angels) and found the market for his services to be not as lucrative as he believed it would be. He probably would have earned more than $7.25 million had he accepted arbitration. Live and learn, right? Well, given his improvement in 2009 (as noted by Spencer); he’s most likely looking for more money than he earned in 2009 and probably more than the Angels will be willing to pay him as well. I believe, if Garland does sign with the Angels, it will be because the market has proven to be a tough one once again.

There are a number of other free agent pitchers still out there as possible options. The most popular target among fans is probably Ben Sheets, who is coming off an injury, but has a lot of upside. Sheets missed all of 2009, but is a three-time all-star with a career 3.72 ERA. It’s easy to see why so many fans are interested in him.

That being said, I have to ask; why aren’t there any rumors about clubs being interested in Sheets? I mean the hot stove season has been basically void of news on Sheets. Am I missing something? Perhaps teams are a little gun shy. Who knows?

It would make sense to me if the Angels aren’t interested in the risk. Consider this; Sheets made his debut in 2001 along with C.C. Sabathia, Roy Oswalt and Carlos Zambrano to name a few and despite missing all of 2009, he has logged the fifth highest number of innings for his class (1,428). You can view that total two ways. One, he’s durable or two; he has a lot of miles on his arm.

Then again, if you look at his 2005, 2006 and 2007 seasons you will see that he only managed 22, 17 and 24 starts in each of those years; calling his durability into question.

In any case, I just can’t see the Angels going down this road. Sheets has enough upside that he will probably seek a guaranteed deal and the Angels don’t appear to be in the “lets take a chance” mode at the moment.

The next most intriguing free-agent might be Joel Pineiro, who is looking to cash in on his most productive season as a starting pitcher. In 2009 Pineiro tied his career high for games started with 32 (he last started that many games in 2003 with Seattle) and had a solid 3.49 ERA. However, Pineiro only struck out 105 pitchers and doesn’t possess the kind of power arm Mike Scioscia covets.

Like Sheets, Pineiro is 31 years old and has only a few more innings under his belt (1,456) despite making his debut a year earlier than Sheets. It should also be noted that Pineiro has spent some time in the majors as a reliever.

In any case (again depending on who you believe or don’t believe) the Angels have been speculated to have interest. I can’t see it. Besides, the last time the Angels signed a player after they had a breakout season they ended up with Gary Matthews, Jr. You’d think they’d be a little gun shy. I’m just saying.

Two other options Jarrod Washburn (35 yrs. old) and Doug Davis (34 yrs. old) are past their prime and don’t figure to receive much, if any interest from the Angels. You can also throw Erik Bedard into the mix, but he’s only managed 15 starts in each of his last two seasons. Others include Bartolo Colon (been there, done that), Braden Looper (and his 5.22 ERA from 2009), and two interesting options in Noah Lowry (who missed parts of 2008 and 2009 with injuries), and Vicente Padilla (the guy who threw deliberately at Vladimir Guerrero while pitching for Texas).

Now, my friend and fellow 514 Fanatic Bo, would love to see Padilla in an Angels uniform. Me? Not so much. You have to remember I have this thing about players who supposedly hate your team one day and then are on it the next. Besides, even though Padilla pitched well for the Dodgers (3.20 ERA), you can’t dismiss his 4.92 ERA while pitching for the Rangers in the same year.

Now, I am intrigued by Noah Lowry. What interests me is his 2005 season when he had a 3.78 ERA in 33 starts to go with 172 K’s in 204.2 innings. If he’s healthy (always a big IF), he could be a less expensive option than say Ben Sheets.

If you have a stomach for risk, there are actually plenty of options among the old and recently injured (that sounds like baseball’s version of a soap opera, doesn’t it?) – like Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Mark Mulder, yadda, yadda, yadda. Again, I don’t think the Angels are likely to roll the dice on any of those types of players.

Needless to say the prospects for a #5 starter aren’t looking very promising. I wouldn’t blame the Angels for looking internally for a solution because it would be cheaper and that role could rotate between several guys during the season and then be re-addressed by the trading deadline, if necessary.