There's something about Joe

I’m predicting big things for Joe Saunders in 2010. I know that’s probably not a big surprise since I’ve gone on record several times to tell you all that I’m a huge Joe Saunders fan. Never-the-less, in this case I’m not just saying things just to say it.

Fact is I expect big things out of the rotation as a whole. I’ve already gone over my thoughts on Jered Weaver and Scott Kazmir. Now it’s time to pump up the volume on Joe.

Look we’ve already seen glimpses of what he can do. He had an all-star season in 2008 and had he not been injured last year, he probably would have duplicated and possibly even improved upon that effort in 2009. Not being able to get full extension in his shoulder was a major contributor to his struggles. That’s not an excuse; that’s just the way it is.

Even still, we saw some good stuff from Joe last year; like the night he bested CY Young award winner Zack Greinke with a complete game, 1-0 shut out on May 9, 2009. You know what I loved about that game? Joe’s reaction when he won. When the game ended, Joe had that “boy that was fun” look on his face. It wasn’t a “look at me, I’m the great K-Rod demonstration;” it was more along the lines of “how about that” as he slapped his glove in celebration.

I loved it. Cheryl (my wife) loved it. He bested one of the top notch pitchers in the game. I’m sure I was yelling “that’s what I’m talking about!”

That night was vintage Joe. That was a guy with quiet confidence finding his way into the spotlight organically. He was just doing his thing and having fun doing it. You have to love that.

If you’re not a Joe Saunders fan yet, stick around – you will be.

He’s not the kind of guy who grabs headlines. Guys who pitch to contact rarely are, but let me tell you – Joe’s got game. I’ve lamented plenty of times about the great season he had in 2008 when he lead the Angels starters in wins and ERA. If he’s healthy (and I’m assuming he will be) I see no reason why he can’t get back to having another season like the one in 2008.

Now, I may be in the minority in that thinking, as people like Bill James seems to disagree. He projects Saunders to go 10-10 with a respectable 4.15 ERA and a FIP of 4.41. Most projections have him improving on his 2009 season, but none appear to have him coming close to what he did just two years ago.

I mean 10-10? Really? Someone get Vegas on the line, I need to put down a bet.

Joe is all of 28 years old and I believe he’s about to enter into the prime of his career. He showed how good he could be when he came off the DL last season. In the 8 starts after coming off the DL on August 26, 2009 he gave up three runs just once, two runs five times, didn’t allow any runs once and gave up a run on one other start.

He was Smokin’ Joe Saunders during that stretch. He went 7-1 in those games. Yeah, yeah, I know wins aren’t necessarily the best indicator of pitching success. So relax, winning seven games is a good thing. Trust me on this.

I believe those last eight games were more indicative of Saunders’ ability than most of the prior games when he was battling injury. Now, I may be a Saunders homer, but I don’t think that’s an unreasonable assumption, do you?

Here’s another thought; Joe will most likely be the #2, #3 or #4 starter and that means he will usually be facing other #2's, #3’s and #4’s. I have to say; I like his chances against those guys on any given night. Now, I know schedules don’t always pan out that way, but it isn’t a reach by any means.

So there you have it. I’m expecting big things from Joe Saunders. The 2010 rotation is going to be something special. I believe they will push one another and that there will be a friendly competition to out do one another. These are young guys, with a great deal of confidence and talent. They may be the best 1-5 staff in the big leagues.

Even though there has been an influx of top-of-the-rotation type guys coming into the AL West; like Cliff Lee, Ben Sheets and Rich Harden joining the likes of Felix Hernandez, I’ll take the Angels starting five over any other five starters on any other given team in the AL West. Can I get a boo-ya?

Now… about that Maicer Izturis signing. I’ve read where some Angel fans are wondering if Izturis’ well-deserved three year, $10 million contract spells some sort of bad news for Howie Kendrick and/or Brandon Wood. Well, in a word – no. However, the fact that some fans are even thinking that way is a great indicator as to how good Izturis is.

Might Maicer as Rex Hudler would say, “has skills.” He’s an asset and the Angels were wise to lock him up for three years. He’s much more than a bench player; he’s a solid utility guy who will easily get 300-350 AB’s. He’s also a very…. (now, get ready for this because I’m going to use one of those phrases that drives some stat heads crazy)… a very “clutch” hitter. Ooh, I think I heard a couple of veins pop on some foreheads out there.

It was time to pay Izturis and that’s not a bad reflection on Kendrick or Wood; it’s a great reflection on Izturis’ value to the Angels. That’s it folks; so, let’s not get crazy.

By the way, some of you may have noticed that the guy I was hoping the Angels would sign to fill in for the role formerly played by Robb Quinlan; Chad Tracy was signed by the Cubs.

I’m still trying to figure out who will end up backing up Kendry Morales at 1B. Izturis has 2B, 3B, and SS covered, but I can’t see a guy who’s all of 5’8” backing up Morales. So, who’s still available?

Well, there’s Hank Blalock (a popular choice among Angel fans); however, I think he’s a train wreck defensively and hits enough bombs to probably warrant a full time DH job somewhere else. Perhaps someone like Ryan Garko (who went to Servite High School in Anaheim) could fill that role.

Oh and before anyone brings it up (actually I’m too late on this), let’s just say “NO” to bringing back Darin Erstad for that role. I think there’s some kind of unwritten rule about guys who take out ads in the local paper to thank the fans when they leave, not being able to come back to that team. Those kind of good-byes are final, even though it was a tremendous gesture on Erstad’s part.

By the way, I’m still waiting for one of those from the guy who went to Boston, but I’m not holding my breath.

One last thing... today is my late father's birthday. I miss him more than words can say. I know he would have loved this blog.

Calling on the Angels to call on Chad Tracy

While Matt Holliday, Jason Bay and John Lackey are clearly the headliners in this year’s version of the Hot Stove League, I would like to talk about a guy who will fly under the radar (for the most part) and yet have the potential to be a nice pick up for someone (hopefully the Angels).

I’m talking about none other than Chad Tracy. Tracy is just 29 years old and has had more than his share of injuries the last three years. Those injuries have hindered his ability to fulfill his potential, the same potential that convinced the Arizona Diamondbacks to sign him to a three year, $13.25 million contract in 2006. At the time he looked like a bargain having come off a 2005 season where he hit .308 (6th best in the NL) with 27 homeruns and a .911 OPS (16th best in the NL). In 2006 he hit 20 homeruns and his OPS slipped to .794; however, he had become a solid run producer before succumbing to injuries to his knee and oblique over the next three seasons (including 2009).

The Diamondbacks did not pick up his $7 million 2010 option yesterday and instead bought him out for $1 million. Tracy is now a free agent and I’d like to see him in Anaheim. I see him as a low risk, medium to high reward investment. He’s a left handed bat with a little pop. His career OPS is significantly higher versus right handed pitching (.840 vs. .614), suggesting he might be a solid platoon guy. I know platoon guys don’t usually make the headlines in the Host Stove League, but I think Tracy could make some noise.

He also seems to do his best hitting late in the year with a career best .931 OPS in September/October. He's also hit more homeruns during that time period as compared to other months. I love guys who can play at a high level that time of the year.

Why the Angels? He could be an insurance policy for Brandon Wood (assuming Wood becomes the 3B next year). I don’t necessarily see him as an every day guy, but could flourish in a platoon situation with Wood (at least until Wood gets his feet wet). Scioscia loves to platoon young guys. He did this with Casey Kotchman and he’s done with Howie Kendrick and Kendry Morales.

Tracy is versatile. He can play 1B, 3B or LF. The Angels are going to need some additional pop from the left side. Outside of Kendry Morales (who is a switch hitter), they really don’t have another left handed power threat. Abreu can drive in runs, but has never been a huge long ball threat. Aybar and Izturis are solid switch hitters, but neither have hit digit homeruns in a season – even in the minor leagues (other than the one year Aybar hit 14 homeruns at Rancho Cucamonga).

He’s not the sexy choice people most people want to talk about, but I think he could help a team. Don’t get me wrong, the Angels #1 priority should still be John Lackey. I’m also hopeful Figgins and Oliver will be back and that the Angels can some how manage to sign Jason Bay. Tracy isn’t going to invoke comparisons to Troy Glaus or even Doug DeCinces, but could be added as a complimentary piece of the puzzle for next year. At the very least he could be a new and improved version of Robb Quinlan; albeit from the left side.

I know some might see Freddy Sandoval as the logical replacement for “Q.” Not me. Sandoval is only two years younger than Tracy and has had an average minor league career, in my opinion. Tracy is a “young” veteran and would likely fit the role better.

Another choice might have been Matt Brown. This past spring – some were hoping to see Brown take Quinlan’s place. Brown had a good spring, but didn’t follow it up with a solid minor league season. He hit a mere .249 with a .749 OPS with Salt Lake City. In fact Brown has a career .267 average in the minors. I’m afraid the window is closing on both Sandoval and Brown. Neither has the upside of Tracy.

I know it’s been three years since Tracy was last productive. I know he’s been injured a lot. Those are the downsides of Tracy. The upside is that Tracy hopefully has something to prove and sometimes guys who have that kind of attitude can pay off big time. The potential is definitely there and he would be a nice story if he comes through.

Let's get cookin' in Anaheim

The Hot Stove is upon us (okay, it officially starts when the World Series concludes, but humor me) and here’s what I believe the Angels will cook up this off season. Please keep in mind that I have no inside knowledge what-so-ever. That being said, I do have some thoughts (and no, I didn’t hear anything sitting in a bathroom stall or from a friend’s cousin). As always, my posts come with a personal story or two (for those players I believe won't be back).

Prediction: John Lackey is back. Come on; do you really think an organization that values pitching as much as the Angels do would let Lackey walk? Lackey leaving would send a tsunami through the organization. In my opinion, he’s THAT important. The Angels aren’t the kind of team that goes into a season with significant question marks in their rotation, at least not if they can help it. It’s going to cost them, but this is one investment they’re sure to make. Pitching is often a crap shoot. The list of free agent pitching busts is long and depressing. Jeff Weaver anyone?

The Angels know exactly what they’re getting in Lackey and that familiarity is going to make the decision an easy one. I think John Lackey has a little bit of Chuck Finley in him and one day the Angels will induct Lackey into their Hall of Fame, just like Finley.

Prediction: Vladimir Guerrero is gone. I’m sure he’ll land some place where fans would still pay to see him play; a place where the ball flies out of the park; a place where he can DH. No, I’m not thinking Texas. My guess is he will sign with the White Sox, where he can take over the DH role that Jim Thome once occupied.

Memory: In Vlad’s six years in Anaheim, I had one face to face encounter with him. He did an autograph signing at Elmore Toyota his first year. I arrived several hours early and waiting in a very long line to get him to sign a baseball. It’s my one and only in person experience (although I read on Halos Heaven he’s doing a paid autograph signing at OC Dugout in Anaheim’s Hobby City this weekend).

Prediction: This one hurts, but Chone Figgins will be swiping bags for someone else. Chone is a favorite of mine, but it’s time for Brandon Wood to get his shot and based on the Angels past history, they’re inclined to let players like Figgins walk. The market figures to drive his asking price quite high. He's due for a big pay day and I'm happy for him.

Normally I don’t much stock in the idea that players base their contract decisions on wanting to play close to home, but I think that’s actually the case for Figgy. I see Figgins heading to Atlanta to take over second base (Martin Prado is not the answer) or possibly left field (taking over for free agent Garret Anderson). He will be close to his family in Florida.

Memory: Right after the 2005 season, Chone Figgins did an autograph signing at Infiniti of Mission Viejo. Figgins finished the season with 62 stolen bases to lead the league. Cheryl and I made our way there, hoping to have Figgins sign a miniature base with an inscription that would note his accomplishment. One problem, we didn’t have a base. On our way there, we scrambled around to various locations to find one and didn’t have any luck. We went on to the dealership anyway. The line for Figgins was short and this gave us the idea that I could get in line, get something signed and Cheryl could continue to look for a base.

To make a long story - short, we never did find a base that day – but Chone and his brother (who was with him) kept suggesting places where we might find one. Chone was gracious as always. He even let Cheryl try on his World Series ring! He said, “don’t worry, it’s insured.”

During the off season we finally did find a base and the following Spring Training, we tracked Figgins down. He remembered our story and gladly signed our base with an inscription about his being the stolen base champ.

Prediction: Bobby Abreu is 35. Generally speaking, the days of the Angels handing out big contracts to players past their prime is history; at least I hope so. Never-the-less, Abreu will sign a one year deal with an option year with the Angels. He will get better offers, but this will be the one he takes because the Angels will likely be the best (most likely to win) team in the mix. I also think it’s a distinct possibility that he will simply accept arbitration. Bobby says he loves California and if he can replicate his 2009 season, Angel fans will continue to love Bobby.

Abreu will take over the DH duties next year and Juan Rivera will move to right field. Why you ask? Prediction: Because Jason Bay is going to be an Angel. You heard it here first. Okay, I have no idea if I’m the first or only person to say this, but I do believe he’s coming west. There are two things at play here. First of all, he’s not a Scott Boras client and secondly, he’d like to sign sooner rather than later. Both of these things bode well for the Angels. Perhaps they’re small things to hold on to, but that’s my feeling. Also of note (although less important), Bay is from Vancouver, British Columbia and I’m guessing he’d like to be in this time zone. That will be the icing on the cake for Bay. He’s saying all the right things about leaving his options open for this important financial period in his life, but go with me on this one; Bay will be an Angel.

The easy pick is to say that Boston will do whatever it takes to keep Bay, but I’m not buying it. Boston will focus on Matt Holliday and while the Yankees, Giants, etc. are being held hostage by Scott Boras, the Angels will swoop in and nab Bay.

Prediction: Robb Quinlan has been a dedicated professional during his time in Anaheim, but his days in Anaheim are over. Popular sentiment would probably have going home to Minnesota, but I think he’ll take a job in Seattle.

Memory: We have a couple of 8x10’s that Rob has signed for us. He’s always been very nice and sometimes seems almost surprised that anyone would seek out his autograph. Cheryl always referred to him as “twinkle toes” for the way he ran down the line. I will always remember that swing of his. It was the most unorthodoxed swing I have ever seen, but he managed to carve out a nice career.

Prediction: Who’s cooler than Darren Oliver? No one I tell you and the lefty will be back in Anaheim for one last go around. He was the most consistently good pitcher the Angels had in their bull pen this past season. He’ll accept arbitration and have a nice pay raise.

Prediction: I’m going to miss Kelvim Escobar. Word is he is going to pitch in Winter Ball to show people what he can do. If he’s healthy, I’m sure someone will take a shot at him with an incentive driven contract; I’d just be surprised if it was the Angels. I can’t even fathom a guess as to where he’ll end up, but just for the heck of it I’ll say St. Louis.

Memory: This is one funny dude. In 2007 Cheryl and I visited Safeco Field for an Angel road trip late in the year. Kelvim was warming up before one of the games during batting practice (he wasn’t pitching that day). I yelled out to him “Cy Young!” He looked up, smiled and then gave me the “shhhh” sign by holding his index finger over his lips. It was as if he wanted that kind of talk to be kept on the down low…

This past year when the Angels played San Francisco at AT&T for an interleague series, Kelvim was playing with a heckler. A Giants fan was in the upper deck yelling something and Kelvim kept signaling for the guy to come down and say it to his face. The heckler wouldn’t stop and Kelvim just kept smiling and waving the guy to come down. He never did. When teams were introduced, Kelvim hammed it up by giving us the thumbs up every time the Angels were mentioned and a big thumbs down every time “Giants” was heard. He was always very loose.

He and I share the same birthday, albeit, I’m much older and I’ve told him as much. He seemed to get a kick out of that. Escobar will always be one of my favorites. When he was good, he was very good and he always knew how to have a good time.

A couple of free agent predictions. I think it’s doubtful that the Arizona Diamondbacks exercise the $7 million option they have on Chad Tracy. I think they’ll exercise the $1 million buy out instead and the Angels will sign him as an insurance policy for Brandon Wood. Tracy can play first or third and even a little outfield, if necessary. He’s only 29 and will fill the spot soon to be vacated by Robb Quinlan. His left handed bat will come in handy and he could initially find himself in a platoon situation with Wood.

I also believe the Angels could kick the tires on Tony Pena, the right handed relief pitcher who started this past season in Arizona and ended it with the Chicago White Sox.

There you have it. I’ve now thrown my recipes into the Hot Stove mix. I guess you can cook up just about anything out of thin air these days.