The Hot Stove Season is officially cooking

I’ve had a lot of time to think about what the Angels might do this off season and even more time thinking about what I would do. Somewhere between the two is the master plan to rule baseball for generations to come. Okay, maybe not…

In all seriousness, I do expect the Angels to do something unexpected.

Most scenarios being discussed revolve around signing Carl Crawford and/or Adrian Beltre (two signings I believe will happen). If they do those two things, I’m just not sure it will be enough.

I have a plan. I know, I know, you’re thinking here comes another hair brain idea from a fan. Hold on and don’t be so quick to judge. I promise you that I won’t throw out some whacked out idea that has Albert Pujols coming to Anaheim for Juan Rivera. My proposal has some merit and if you let me explain my rational maybe, just maybe it will make sense.

Howie Kendrick is expendable. Whoa. What? “Future batting champ” Howie? Yes. The way I see it, Alberto Callaspo can play 2B and do just as good a job, if not better. Compare their statistics. Kendrick had a better OPS (.721) to Callaspo’s 674 OPS. However, their career OPS numbers (Callaspo .720/Kendrick .752) are close.

Here’s the thing - Callaspo struck out just 42 times compared to Kendrick’s 94 K’s. Callaspo is one of the toughest hitters to fan in baseball. He has better bat control.

Ding. The bell just went off in your head, didn’t it? You see it now, don’t you? Callaspo is Mike Scoscia’s kind of player.

Look, the Angels have been waiting for Howie Kendrick to become the #2 hitter they need; however, he has failed to embrace that role. Why not put the guy who is better suited for that role in the #2 spot? I believe Callaspo is the perfect #2 hitter.

But… Howie has more power right? Nope. They each hit 10 homeruns last year.

Hear me out. Callaspo and Kendrick are both 27 years old (Callaspo is a few months older). Kendrick has more service time and made $1.75 million to Callaspo’s $460,000. The way I see it, Callaspo is just as good and is cheaper.

Besides, the Angels have a plethora of middle infielders who can serve as backup. Maicer “The Tin Man” Izturis and Kevin Frandsen can fill that role. Plus, the Angels have organizational depth here with Alexi Amarista and Jean Segura in the minors and playing well. Someone has to go! Who has more appeal in a trade? Howie Kendrick does, that’s who. He’s got that “P” thing going for him. You know the “potential” thing? I’m sure there’s a team out there who would love to take Howie in a deal.

What team? I’m glad you asked. I’m thinking the Washington Nationals as possible trade partners. And no, I’m not trying to suggest they trade Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper to the Angels. The way I see it, the Nationals have an abundance of outfielders. They have Mike Morse, Nyjer Morgan, Josh Willingham, Roger Bernadina, prospects Justin Maxwell and Harper. They also have Willie Harris who plays just about everywhere (but is also a free agent).

What they don’t have is a second baseman. Adam Kennedy’s option was declined and they’re in the market for a middle infielder (with apologies to Danny Espinosa).

I’m proposing a Howie Kendrick for Roger Bernadina trade. Bernadina is a 26 year old left handed hitting player who can play all three outfield positions. He has moderate power (11 homeruns in 414 AB’s), stole 16 bases and plays exceptional defense.

I see Bernadina as the new Angels right fielder.

What about Torii Hunter, you ask?

I’m glad you asked because here’s where things get interesting. I would not be surprised to see Hunter back in CF next year. Which begs yet another question, right? What about Peter Bourjos.

I’m a huge Bourjos fan, but I have a feeling that his .204 batting average and .237 OBP is going to keep him from being handed the everyday CF job going into the 2011 season. I just don’t think the Angels will be willing to be patient with him and will look for a more immediate solution. Which makes my idea of a Crawford, Hunter, Bernadina outfield seem plausible.

There’s also the Mike Trout factor. Trout is considered by many to be the best prospect in all of baseball and he also happens to be a centerfielder. While I know it’s easy to get caught up in the hype that comes with that kind of tag, I don’t think it’s unrealistic to believe that Trout could be on the big league roster by 2012.

If you buy into what people like Keith Law of ESPN or Jim Callis of Baseball America are saying, then it’s reasonable to believe he will arrive sooner rather than later.

Do the math.

Hunter has two years left on his contract. Trout is on his way and he and Bourjos play the same position. If the Angels sign Carl Crawford something has to give eventually. It’s conceivable that Bourjos will become a fourth outfielder or traded. Like it or not, Bourjos is somewhat expendable.

Now don’t get me wrong – I wouldn’t mind seeing a Crawford, Bourjos, Hunter outfield; in fact, like most fans, I love the idea. However, this team is in desperate need of offense and in order to contend for a World Series title, big changes have to be made. The Angels can’t afford to carry a .200 hitter going into the 2011 season (yes, this also applies to Jeff Mathis).

Let’s not forget that 2011 will be the Angels’ 50th Anniversary. Expect a big splash and bold moves. I have to believe that Arte Moreno isn’t going to settle for another season like the one we all just endured.

Besides, I’m trying to think outside the box here.

So with that in mind, know this - Jeff Mathis is done. Wishful thinking? Perhaps, but consider this – Mathis only saw 39 AB’s in the last month of the season (including a couple days in October). I think this means something. The popular belief is that Mike Napoli is on his way out because Mike Scioscia seems to prefer Mathis for his defensive skills.

Well, I’m throwing that idea out the window based on his diminished playing time at the end of the season. I also don’t need to remind Angel fans that Mathis hit a putrid .195 with a .219 OBP. Like Bourjos, I don’t believe the Angels can afford to carry Mathis on their opening day roster; at least not as the everyday catcher.

I believe the Angels would like to trade Mathis, but that’s truly wishful thinking. Look for Mathis to be non-tendered and released. I see a Mike Napoli/Bobby Wilson tandem behind the plate in 2011.

If you’re thinking Hank Conger will be on the 25 man roster next April, think again. He was released from his Venezuelan team because of his lack of hitting. He’s going to start the year at AAA again.

I know this idea of Napoli staying in Anaheim is outside the popular opinion, but the way I see it the trade market for catchers is slim while the free agent market is booming. Teams looking to add a catcher have Victor Martinez, Miguel Olivo, John Buck, Ramon Hernandez, Rod Barajas, Yorvit Torrealba, and others to look at in the free agent market. Mark it down – Mike Napoli is not going to be traded.

Juan Rivera on the other hand will be dealt for pennies on the dollar. Even though Rivera’s contract is affordable to a lot of teams ($5.25 million), moving him will be difficult, but necessary. I could see a trade to Colorado for utility man Clint Barmes. Rivera could become their right fielder and even spell Todd Helton at first base once in a while.

Colorado could also be the kind of change in scenery or should I say altitude that Rivera needs. Another possible destination could be St. Louis where he could platoon with John Jay (a left handed hitter).

Now, about that bull pen…. Well, if you’re looking at Rafael Soriano, I suggest you look elsewhere. The Angels haven’t had much luck dipping into the free agent market when it comes to relievers. Think about Justin Speier, Brian Fuentes and Fernando Rodney. Not a pretty picture, huh?

I believe they are more likely to trade for a short term solution rather than signing someone to a multi-year deal. The Angels will have Rodney, Kevin Jepsen, Jordan Walden, Michael Kohn, Jason Bulger and most likely either Rich Thompson or Matt Palmer in the pen. While there isn’t a definitive closer in the bunch per say, it’s possible that any one of Walden, Jepsen or Kohn could emerge in that role. I suppose that even Rodney is a possibility.

And there you have it. The ranting of a mad man or the insightful opinion of a long time fan. You decide. Chances are no one will see what’s coming and the Angels will baffle us all.

In the mean time – it’s fun to speculate; after all, the Hot Stove Season is officially open for business.

Be careful what you wish for

I love four game winning streaks. I love any kind of winning, but when they involve streaks of multiple games they’re extra special. Never mind that two of the Angels victories came after 30 innings, which is basically the equivalent of 3.3 games. It’s still good. Too bad the Angels didn’t receive 3.3 wins for their efforts. Never-the-less – winning is always fun.

That being said, the question remains; is this too little, too late? On one hand I’d like to enjoy the victories at a basic level and appreciate the fact that the Angels played well enough to win. On the other, I can’t help but wonder if they have any chance what-so-ever at catching the Texas Rangers?

I know strangers things have happened and it’s only natural to speculate about the possibility. However, the reality is the odds are against the Angels. I just hope they finish strong.

Look, the Angels have 19 games remaining and their elimination number is 10. Any combination of Ranger victories and/or Angel defeats adding up to ten over the next 19 games and the Angels are mathematically eliminated.

You can run all the scenarios through your head. When you do the math; again, the odds are stacked against the Angels. And when you factor in the Oakland Athletics also being ahead of the Angels the water really becomes murky. Let’s just say the fat lady is warming up.

I know I know who am I to rain on the parade? Let’s just say I’m trying to keep a little perspective. Right now, my immediate hope is that Texas doesn’t roll into town next week to clinch the division. The idea of watching them celebrate in our stadium is enough to make me projectile vomit. Just saying.

Speaking of the nauseating… let’s talk about the role of the closer on the Angels. In my opinion, the much maligned Brian Fuentes was doing a pretty good job. Yes, he made some games interesting, but he had come to the point of being pretty consistent. He had saved 17 of his last 18 opportunities. His ERA had dropped considerably from June 20th on.

Never-the-less, Angel fans clamored for Fernando Rodney to be inserted into the closer role and wished to see Fuentes sent off to parts unknown. Well, be careful what you wish for.

Since August 30, Rodney has blown three out of eight chances. Despite that the Angels did win two of those games; but even with that, Rodney has given Angel fans more to moan about.

Personally, I don’t really have a beef with Rodney and I didn’t really have a problem with Fuentes. The way I see it – closers are basically a hit or miss deal. If your closer isn’t named Mariano Rivera, you don’t know what you’re going to get from year to year.

Look at who has struggled this year. Jonathan Papelbon has blown seven saves and so has Billy Wagner of the Braves. Francisco Cordero has blown 8 saves for the division leading Cincinnati Reds. Jonathon Broxton has six blown saves and has basically lost his role as the Dodgers closer.

Closers can be great one year and a total bust the next and vice versa. I venture to guess that if you ask just about any fan base about their closer – none are entirely pleased with theirs. Even the great Mariano has blown three opportunities (not that Yankee fans are complaining). Nobody is perfect; at least not this year. In fact, only a handful of guys have been even close to perfect. The best of the bunch? Joaquin Soria of the Royals who has 37 saves in 39 chances; Rafael Soriano who has saved 42 out of 45 games; Heath Bell of the Padres with 41 out 44 and Neftali Feliz of the Rangers who has saved 36 out of 39.

Brad Lidge is the only guy in recent memory (not including those suspected of steroid use – hello “Game Over”) who has had a perfect season (Lidge saved 41 of 41 in 2008 for the Phillies). Keep in mind he blew 8 saves the year prior in 2007 with the Astros and then blew a mind boggling 11 games in 2009 with the Phillies.

When you think about it... or at least when I think about it - Brian Fuentes didn’t look so bad.

Think about this – There are 34 closers who have at least ten saves on the year (as of 9/14/10). That group has saved 868 games and blown 145. That’s an 85% success rate (think of someone saving 34 out of 40 games). Most people would consider that a horrible percentage. The percentages dip even lower for those who have save totals between 3 and 9. That group which includes 22 pitchers has only saved 112 out of 174 games for a horrid 64% (think of approximately 26 saves out of 40).

That’s a lot of anxious moments for fans throughout baseball. Something else to think about - there are 30 major league teams and 121 different players have at least one save and even more who have had "save opportunities."



How many times has one guy started the year as the closer only to be replaced by someone else? I don't have that answer handy - but Angel fans should think about the year K-Rod walked and how many assumed Jose Arredondo would become the closer. Whatever happened to him you ask? Exactly...

My point is that everyone wants a "shut down" closer who is perfect night in and night out while the reality is - that pitcher simply doesn’t exist. Before you start booing your closer or wishing for someone else to take on that role, you’d better realize how volatile the role is to begin with and just having a guy who can handle that kind of rollercoaster ride is not a bad thing even if he blows 5, 6 or 7 games in a year now and then. We all have to temper our expectations when it comes to closing games.

Fuentes would have been fine. Rodney will probably be fine, all things considered.

You watch - when Rafael Soriano hits the free agent market this year - some team, some where will over pay for his services. In my opinion, he doesn't have the track record to warrant a long term deal, but someone will give him one. It will be a move that team will more than likely regret in the long run.

Wishing for win streaks = good thing. Wishing for someone else to close your games for your team = a dangerous proposition.

Pay Johnny good

In a surprise development free agent outfielder Johnny Damon wants more money. No friends, that’s not a mistake, Johnny wants more. I know, I know… I’m as shocked as you are.

My favorite mercenary is looking for the highest bidder again and with Scott Boras as his agent, he’ll probably get what he wants. He will then have the nerve to tell us all that (fill in the blank) was always where he wanted to play; his first choice all along.

Sure Johnny. Whatever you say Johnny.

According to the NY Daily News, Damon prefers to stay with the Yankees, and while he has made that wish very public, sources say he isn't about to give the Yankees a big discount to stay there.

Of course not. We’re talking Johnny Damon, who would sign up to play for Cuba in the World Baseball Classic if he could get enough money from Castro.

The Daily News also reports Damon has told friends all year he would take a shorter deal from the Yankees than he would elsewhere… but it is believed he would want a higher average annual salary if he were to take less years.

Translation - pay me four years worth of salary for two years worth of work because "I love New York."

Johnny made $13 million in 2009. Granted he had a fair offensive season, but let’s not forget that 17 of his 24 homeruns came in the band box known as Yankee Stadium. I guess the Yankees and Damon deserve each other. Where else can he continue to command more money than say…? Bobby Abreu and put up mediocre numbers.

Per Ken Rosenthal – Boras will use Bobby Abreu’s contract as a starting point and Boras will argue that Damon deserves more. Abreu is signed for two years and $19 million.

I have to say the thought of Damon being compared to Abreu makes my skin crawl. The Angels wanted Abreu back. Abreu wanted to come back. They got a deal done… no testing the open market, etc. Deal done. Again, the Yankees and Damon deserve one another.

He’s quoted in the NY Daily News as saying… "I want to continue to be on a team that can win and to play in front of great fans - and we know that the Yankees fill both of those," Damon said. "I think everyone knows my desire to come back. Still, every time I've been a free agent, I've ended up switching teams. It's the nature of the beast. If people are interested, I'm going to listen."

Translation… money talks and Johnny walks.

Johnny can bank all the money he wants; that’s his prerogative. It’s just time people realized that he’s all about the money. Come on Johnny… just say it. You could actually care less where you play as long as that team offers you the most money; you’re as loyal as a dog in heat.

Johnny’s not the kind of guy you’d want dating your daughter. Johnny’s the kid in elementary school who pinky swore with one hand and had his fingers crossed on the other. He’s the kid that swindled other kids out of their lunch money and became the teacher’s pet by bringing her an apple that he picked off a neighbor’s tree.

I can’t wait to see Teixeira, A-Rod and Johnny posing together for photo next year. We’ll get to see three of the phoniest smiles in all of sports.

What’s the world coming to? Next thing you know Paul Loduca will think he can come back and play in the major leagues next year.

Hot Stove Predictions Final Installment - Pitching

For my last installment of Hot Stove Predictions, I am taking a look at pitchers. All categories are covered here – be it starters, relievers or wanna-be’s.

Before, I get started, I have to correct an early prediction I made. In true bone-head like form, I predicted the Angels would sign Tony Pena, thinking Pena was the same one that once pitched for Arizona before being traded to the White Sox. Turns out that he’s not a free agent and the one that is a free agent is Tony Pena, Jr. the Kansas City Royal who was converted from shortstop.

In any case – I have no idea where Junior will end up and I can’t say I care much eith... and with that, I will now revise my Angels pick to 30 year old Rafael Soriano, last seen pitching for the Braves. Hopefully, there’s not a Rafael Soriano, Jr. out there to make me more confused than I already am.

Soriano has the kind of power arm the Angels always seem to covet. Soriano would give the Angels bull pen a huge boost.

As for the rest… there are so many pitchers on the open market, I thought it would be easiest for me to just list them. It’s not a comprehensive list, but there are still a lot of names here:

Starting pitchers
Miguel Batista (39) - Diamondbacks
Erik Bedard (31) - Type B - Braves
Daniel Cabrera (29) – Cardinals
Aroldis Chapman (22) – Yankees
Doug Davis (34) - Type B – Mariners
Justin Duchscherer (32) - Type B – Cubs
Jon Garland (30) - Type B – Twins
Rich Harden (28) - Type B – Mets
John Lackey (31) - Type A – Angels
Braden Looper (35) - Type B – Royals
Jason Marquis (31) - Type B – Yankees
Pedro Martinez (38) – Dodgers
Brett Myers (29) – Rangers
Vicente Padilla (32) - Type B – Dodgers
Carl Pavano (34) - Type B – Diamondbacks
Brad Penny (32) – Giants
Andy Pettitte (38) - Type B – Yankees
Joel Pineiro (31) - Type B – Nationals
Horacio Ramirez (30) – Reds
Ben Sheets (31) – Astros
John Smoltz (43) – Rockies
Jarrod Washburn (35) – Brewers
Todd Wellemeyer (31) – Cubs
Kip Wells (33) - Nationals
Randy Wolf (33) - Type A – Mets

Closers:
Mike Gonzalez (32) - Type A - Tigers
Kevin Gregg (32) - Type A – Astros
Fernando Rodney (33) - Type B - Phillies
Rafael Soriano (30) - Type A - Angels
Jose Valverde (32) - Type A - Rays
Billy Wagner (38) - Type A – Orioles

Right-handed relievers:
Rafael Betancourt (35) - Type A – Red Sox
Kiko Calero (35) - Type B - Rays
Octavio Dotel (36) - Type A - Yankees
LaTroy Hawkins (37) - Type A - Astros
Jason Isringhausen (37) - Rays
Brandon Lyon (30) - Type B - Tigers
Guillermo Mota (36) - Type B - Dodgers
Chan Ho Park (37) - Type B - Phillies
J.J. Putz (33) – Red Sox
Justin Speier (36) - Giants
Russ Springer (41) - Type B - Rays
David Weathers (40) - Type B - Reds
Jeff Weaver (33) - Dodgers

Left-handed relievers:
Joe Beimel (32) - Type B – Mets
Will Ohman (31) - Type B - Padres
Darren Oliver (39) - Type A - Angels