Angels need to look elsewhere for bullpen help

At one point during this hot stove season, Arte Moreno was quoted as saying he wanted to add a power bat, another starting pitcher and a relief pitcher. So far, the Angels have landed one of those in Hideki Matsui. Not ideal, but he does fill a need for a left handed run producer.

Today, we learned the Angels are in serious discussions with Fernando Rodney

What do we know about Rodney?

Rodney is projected as a possible set up guy; however, it should be noted that he saved 37 games in 38 opportunities for the highest save percentage in the league this past season. He did this despite a 4.40 ERA; not exactly the kind of number you’d want from a guy who’s supposed to shut down the other team when it really matters.

Was he lucky? Perhaps.

Consider this; in 2007 and 2008 he had more strike outs than innings pitched. Last year his strike outs per nine innings reached a career low 7.3 (against a lifetime ratio of 8.6). He also gave up a career high 8 homeruns. Quite a big number for a “stopper.” It should also be noted that Rodney will be 33 when the 2010 season begins. He’s also coming off a season where he pitched a career high 75.2 innings.

When you look at his numbers and factor in his age, it’s easy to conclude Rodney may be in decline. The Angels would be wise to pass on this free agent.

Given the inconsistency of last year’s bull pen, Rodney doesn’t seem like a good fit. He raises a few too many questions for me.

Now where is that starter Moreno wanted? John Lackey is gone and two players the Angels reportedly had interest in are no longer targets. Halladay has moved on to Philadelphia and Javier Vazquez is now a Yankee. And just for the record the Derek Lowe rumors make no sense what-so-ever. He’s too old, too costly and just not that good.

And that big bat? There is talk the Angels are among four teams supposedly "interested" in Jason Bay, but given the log jam already in their outfield, this too makes very little sense; unless they plan to move one or more of the current batch of outfielders. Also, Bay appears to be out of the Angels price range.

If Moreno is to achieve his hot stove goals, the Angels clearly need to get busy; more importantly, they will need to get creative. The free agnet pool lacks depth and doesn’t meet the Angels needs or budget.

As I said in a previous post, it appears the Angels have moved on to plan B, C, D or worse. Not exactly what most of us expected and not the kind of thing that builds confidence.

Stay tuned.

Arbitration Monday - the late night edition...

As I mentioned in my last post, the Angels offered arbitration to John Lackey and Chone Figgins. No surprise there. They did not offer arbitration to Darren Oliver and for me, that was a surprise. I didn’t see that coming at all. My first reaction was to ask why not? And then Mark Polishuk of mlbtraderumors.com put things in the proper perspective.

Polishuk writes, "Though L.A. could have received two draft picks as compensation for Oliver had he turned down arbitration and signed with another club, there's also a chance that teams would be scared off by the prospect of losing a draft pick in order to sign a 39-year-old setup man. The Angels didn't want to run the risk of Oliver accepting the offer and possibly earning a healthy raise given his career-best 2.71 ERA and 8 K/9 in 2009."

That makes sense, but then again it shows the Angels cutting costs once more. Is this a good thing? I know the Angels are a financially prudent team, but I’ve never seen them tighten their belts this much. They’ve cut back in their administrative staff and in the broadcast booth. I’m beginning to believe the Angels might not make too big a splash in the free agent market this year. Man, I’d sure like to know what their plans entail.

If the Angels lose Oliver, Lackey and Figgins and choose not to replace them with anyone else; what will the team look like? We’ve become used to seeing the Angels spending some money each off season. Will this year be different? At this point in time, that appears to be the case and I don’t think it’s necessarily a bad thing.

Let’s face it, the free agent market is somewhat weak and Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are likely to get more money than they’ll be worth. If the Angels stand pat, I’m pretty sure I can live with it. I might change my mind tomorrow, but as of tonight – I’m good. No, really I'm okay with it; at least I think so.

That being said, I will expect them to improve the club during the season if necessary.

I guess the real story in the Angels decisions today is that Darren Oliver’s stock just went up. Teams can sign him without losing any draft picks and who couldn’t use a solid left handed veteran in their bull pen? Hopefully, Oliver will want to come back to Anaheim bad enough to find some common ground with the Angels. Losing Oliver would create a pretty large void in the bull pen, in my opinion. I do not like the possibility of seeing him leave. I really just assumed Oliver would be back. Now, we'll have to wait and see.

Don't you just love waiting? Yeah, me too. Ugh.

So as we wrap up "Arbitration Monday" we find that 23 players have been offered arbitration. You can see the complete list on mlbtraderumors.com.

One last tidbit... Ken Rosenthal is reporting the Braves have signed Billy Wagner.

Calling on the Angels to call on Chad Tracy

While Matt Holliday, Jason Bay and John Lackey are clearly the headliners in this year’s version of the Hot Stove League, I would like to talk about a guy who will fly under the radar (for the most part) and yet have the potential to be a nice pick up for someone (hopefully the Angels).

I’m talking about none other than Chad Tracy. Tracy is just 29 years old and has had more than his share of injuries the last three years. Those injuries have hindered his ability to fulfill his potential, the same potential that convinced the Arizona Diamondbacks to sign him to a three year, $13.25 million contract in 2006. At the time he looked like a bargain having come off a 2005 season where he hit .308 (6th best in the NL) with 27 homeruns and a .911 OPS (16th best in the NL). In 2006 he hit 20 homeruns and his OPS slipped to .794; however, he had become a solid run producer before succumbing to injuries to his knee and oblique over the next three seasons (including 2009).

The Diamondbacks did not pick up his $7 million 2010 option yesterday and instead bought him out for $1 million. Tracy is now a free agent and I’d like to see him in Anaheim. I see him as a low risk, medium to high reward investment. He’s a left handed bat with a little pop. His career OPS is significantly higher versus right handed pitching (.840 vs. .614), suggesting he might be a solid platoon guy. I know platoon guys don’t usually make the headlines in the Host Stove League, but I think Tracy could make some noise.

He also seems to do his best hitting late in the year with a career best .931 OPS in September/October. He's also hit more homeruns during that time period as compared to other months. I love guys who can play at a high level that time of the year.

Why the Angels? He could be an insurance policy for Brandon Wood (assuming Wood becomes the 3B next year). I don’t necessarily see him as an every day guy, but could flourish in a platoon situation with Wood (at least until Wood gets his feet wet). Scioscia loves to platoon young guys. He did this with Casey Kotchman and he’s done with Howie Kendrick and Kendry Morales.

Tracy is versatile. He can play 1B, 3B or LF. The Angels are going to need some additional pop from the left side. Outside of Kendry Morales (who is a switch hitter), they really don’t have another left handed power threat. Abreu can drive in runs, but has never been a huge long ball threat. Aybar and Izturis are solid switch hitters, but neither have hit digit homeruns in a season – even in the minor leagues (other than the one year Aybar hit 14 homeruns at Rancho Cucamonga).

He’s not the sexy choice people most people want to talk about, but I think he could help a team. Don’t get me wrong, the Angels #1 priority should still be John Lackey. I’m also hopeful Figgins and Oliver will be back and that the Angels can some how manage to sign Jason Bay. Tracy isn’t going to invoke comparisons to Troy Glaus or even Doug DeCinces, but could be added as a complimentary piece of the puzzle for next year. At the very least he could be a new and improved version of Robb Quinlan; albeit from the left side.

I know some might see Freddy Sandoval as the logical replacement for “Q.” Not me. Sandoval is only two years younger than Tracy and has had an average minor league career, in my opinion. Tracy is a “young” veteran and would likely fit the role better.

Another choice might have been Matt Brown. This past spring – some were hoping to see Brown take Quinlan’s place. Brown had a good spring, but didn’t follow it up with a solid minor league season. He hit a mere .249 with a .749 OPS with Salt Lake City. In fact Brown has a career .267 average in the minors. I’m afraid the window is closing on both Sandoval and Brown. Neither has the upside of Tracy.

I know it’s been three years since Tracy was last productive. I know he’s been injured a lot. Those are the downsides of Tracy. The upside is that Tracy hopefully has something to prove and sometimes guys who have that kind of attitude can pay off big time. The potential is definitely there and he would be a nice story if he comes through.

Let's get cookin' in Anaheim

The Hot Stove is upon us (okay, it officially starts when the World Series concludes, but humor me) and here’s what I believe the Angels will cook up this off season. Please keep in mind that I have no inside knowledge what-so-ever. That being said, I do have some thoughts (and no, I didn’t hear anything sitting in a bathroom stall or from a friend’s cousin). As always, my posts come with a personal story or two (for those players I believe won't be back).

Prediction: John Lackey is back. Come on; do you really think an organization that values pitching as much as the Angels do would let Lackey walk? Lackey leaving would send a tsunami through the organization. In my opinion, he’s THAT important. The Angels aren’t the kind of team that goes into a season with significant question marks in their rotation, at least not if they can help it. It’s going to cost them, but this is one investment they’re sure to make. Pitching is often a crap shoot. The list of free agent pitching busts is long and depressing. Jeff Weaver anyone?

The Angels know exactly what they’re getting in Lackey and that familiarity is going to make the decision an easy one. I think John Lackey has a little bit of Chuck Finley in him and one day the Angels will induct Lackey into their Hall of Fame, just like Finley.

Prediction: Vladimir Guerrero is gone. I’m sure he’ll land some place where fans would still pay to see him play; a place where the ball flies out of the park; a place where he can DH. No, I’m not thinking Texas. My guess is he will sign with the White Sox, where he can take over the DH role that Jim Thome once occupied.

Memory: In Vlad’s six years in Anaheim, I had one face to face encounter with him. He did an autograph signing at Elmore Toyota his first year. I arrived several hours early and waiting in a very long line to get him to sign a baseball. It’s my one and only in person experience (although I read on Halos Heaven he’s doing a paid autograph signing at OC Dugout in Anaheim’s Hobby City this weekend).

Prediction: This one hurts, but Chone Figgins will be swiping bags for someone else. Chone is a favorite of mine, but it’s time for Brandon Wood to get his shot and based on the Angels past history, they’re inclined to let players like Figgins walk. The market figures to drive his asking price quite high. He's due for a big pay day and I'm happy for him.

Normally I don’t much stock in the idea that players base their contract decisions on wanting to play close to home, but I think that’s actually the case for Figgy. I see Figgins heading to Atlanta to take over second base (Martin Prado is not the answer) or possibly left field (taking over for free agent Garret Anderson). He will be close to his family in Florida.

Memory: Right after the 2005 season, Chone Figgins did an autograph signing at Infiniti of Mission Viejo. Figgins finished the season with 62 stolen bases to lead the league. Cheryl and I made our way there, hoping to have Figgins sign a miniature base with an inscription that would note his accomplishment. One problem, we didn’t have a base. On our way there, we scrambled around to various locations to find one and didn’t have any luck. We went on to the dealership anyway. The line for Figgins was short and this gave us the idea that I could get in line, get something signed and Cheryl could continue to look for a base.

To make a long story - short, we never did find a base that day – but Chone and his brother (who was with him) kept suggesting places where we might find one. Chone was gracious as always. He even let Cheryl try on his World Series ring! He said, “don’t worry, it’s insured.”

During the off season we finally did find a base and the following Spring Training, we tracked Figgins down. He remembered our story and gladly signed our base with an inscription about his being the stolen base champ.

Prediction: Bobby Abreu is 35. Generally speaking, the days of the Angels handing out big contracts to players past their prime is history; at least I hope so. Never-the-less, Abreu will sign a one year deal with an option year with the Angels. He will get better offers, but this will be the one he takes because the Angels will likely be the best (most likely to win) team in the mix. I also think it’s a distinct possibility that he will simply accept arbitration. Bobby says he loves California and if he can replicate his 2009 season, Angel fans will continue to love Bobby.

Abreu will take over the DH duties next year and Juan Rivera will move to right field. Why you ask? Prediction: Because Jason Bay is going to be an Angel. You heard it here first. Okay, I have no idea if I’m the first or only person to say this, but I do believe he’s coming west. There are two things at play here. First of all, he’s not a Scott Boras client and secondly, he’d like to sign sooner rather than later. Both of these things bode well for the Angels. Perhaps they’re small things to hold on to, but that’s my feeling. Also of note (although less important), Bay is from Vancouver, British Columbia and I’m guessing he’d like to be in this time zone. That will be the icing on the cake for Bay. He’s saying all the right things about leaving his options open for this important financial period in his life, but go with me on this one; Bay will be an Angel.

The easy pick is to say that Boston will do whatever it takes to keep Bay, but I’m not buying it. Boston will focus on Matt Holliday and while the Yankees, Giants, etc. are being held hostage by Scott Boras, the Angels will swoop in and nab Bay.

Prediction: Robb Quinlan has been a dedicated professional during his time in Anaheim, but his days in Anaheim are over. Popular sentiment would probably have going home to Minnesota, but I think he’ll take a job in Seattle.

Memory: We have a couple of 8x10’s that Rob has signed for us. He’s always been very nice and sometimes seems almost surprised that anyone would seek out his autograph. Cheryl always referred to him as “twinkle toes” for the way he ran down the line. I will always remember that swing of his. It was the most unorthodoxed swing I have ever seen, but he managed to carve out a nice career.

Prediction: Who’s cooler than Darren Oliver? No one I tell you and the lefty will be back in Anaheim for one last go around. He was the most consistently good pitcher the Angels had in their bull pen this past season. He’ll accept arbitration and have a nice pay raise.

Prediction: I’m going to miss Kelvim Escobar. Word is he is going to pitch in Winter Ball to show people what he can do. If he’s healthy, I’m sure someone will take a shot at him with an incentive driven contract; I’d just be surprised if it was the Angels. I can’t even fathom a guess as to where he’ll end up, but just for the heck of it I’ll say St. Louis.

Memory: This is one funny dude. In 2007 Cheryl and I visited Safeco Field for an Angel road trip late in the year. Kelvim was warming up before one of the games during batting practice (he wasn’t pitching that day). I yelled out to him “Cy Young!” He looked up, smiled and then gave me the “shhhh” sign by holding his index finger over his lips. It was as if he wanted that kind of talk to be kept on the down low…

This past year when the Angels played San Francisco at AT&T for an interleague series, Kelvim was playing with a heckler. A Giants fan was in the upper deck yelling something and Kelvim kept signaling for the guy to come down and say it to his face. The heckler wouldn’t stop and Kelvim just kept smiling and waving the guy to come down. He never did. When teams were introduced, Kelvim hammed it up by giving us the thumbs up every time the Angels were mentioned and a big thumbs down every time “Giants” was heard. He was always very loose.

He and I share the same birthday, albeit, I’m much older and I’ve told him as much. He seemed to get a kick out of that. Escobar will always be one of my favorites. When he was good, he was very good and he always knew how to have a good time.

A couple of free agent predictions. I think it’s doubtful that the Arizona Diamondbacks exercise the $7 million option they have on Chad Tracy. I think they’ll exercise the $1 million buy out instead and the Angels will sign him as an insurance policy for Brandon Wood. Tracy can play first or third and even a little outfield, if necessary. He’s only 29 and will fill the spot soon to be vacated by Robb Quinlan. His left handed bat will come in handy and he could initially find himself in a platoon situation with Wood.

I also believe the Angels could kick the tires on Tony Pena, the right handed relief pitcher who started this past season in Arizona and ended it with the Chicago White Sox.

There you have it. I’ve now thrown my recipes into the Hot Stove mix. I guess you can cook up just about anything out of thin air these days.