Arbitration Monday - the late night edition...

As I mentioned in my last post, the Angels offered arbitration to John Lackey and Chone Figgins. No surprise there. They did not offer arbitration to Darren Oliver and for me, that was a surprise. I didn’t see that coming at all. My first reaction was to ask why not? And then Mark Polishuk of mlbtraderumors.com put things in the proper perspective.

Polishuk writes, "Though L.A. could have received two draft picks as compensation for Oliver had he turned down arbitration and signed with another club, there's also a chance that teams would be scared off by the prospect of losing a draft pick in order to sign a 39-year-old setup man. The Angels didn't want to run the risk of Oliver accepting the offer and possibly earning a healthy raise given his career-best 2.71 ERA and 8 K/9 in 2009."

That makes sense, but then again it shows the Angels cutting costs once more. Is this a good thing? I know the Angels are a financially prudent team, but I’ve never seen them tighten their belts this much. They’ve cut back in their administrative staff and in the broadcast booth. I’m beginning to believe the Angels might not make too big a splash in the free agent market this year. Man, I’d sure like to know what their plans entail.

If the Angels lose Oliver, Lackey and Figgins and choose not to replace them with anyone else; what will the team look like? We’ve become used to seeing the Angels spending some money each off season. Will this year be different? At this point in time, that appears to be the case and I don’t think it’s necessarily a bad thing.

Let’s face it, the free agent market is somewhat weak and Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are likely to get more money than they’ll be worth. If the Angels stand pat, I’m pretty sure I can live with it. I might change my mind tomorrow, but as of tonight – I’m good. No, really I'm okay with it; at least I think so.

That being said, I will expect them to improve the club during the season if necessary.

I guess the real story in the Angels decisions today is that Darren Oliver’s stock just went up. Teams can sign him without losing any draft picks and who couldn’t use a solid left handed veteran in their bull pen? Hopefully, Oliver will want to come back to Anaheim bad enough to find some common ground with the Angels. Losing Oliver would create a pretty large void in the bull pen, in my opinion. I do not like the possibility of seeing him leave. I really just assumed Oliver would be back. Now, we'll have to wait and see.

Don't you just love waiting? Yeah, me too. Ugh.

So as we wrap up "Arbitration Monday" we find that 23 players have been offered arbitration. You can see the complete list on mlbtraderumors.com.

One last tidbit... Ken Rosenthal is reporting the Braves have signed Billy Wagner.

Hot Stove Predictions - Part 3 (1B, C, OF)

Amazingly (or maybe not) there aren’t any Type A free agents among the available first basemen. The top guys are Carlos Delgado, the oft injured Nick Johnson, Adam LaRoche, and a couple of guys who should get a good look from teams in Russell Branyan and Hank Blalock.

I’ll start with Blalock, who I see going to Cleveland. Here’s a team that desperately needs some power in their lineup (they finished 10th in the AL last year in homers) and Blalock can provide that. He’s not great at hitting lefties, but he will give a team 25-30 long balls. He could even platoon with Andy Marte, who is coming to the point in his career when he’s either got to put up the numbers or find his way to the bench or worse. Blalock is only 29 years old and still has some upside and would be a nice piece for the Indians to add.

If ever there was a player that fit the Billy Beane mold, it’s Nick Johnson. Johnson has a career OBP of .402. He’s a walk machine. Problem is he has a hard time staying healthy. It’s the “if he’s healthy” label that intrigues people and I can’t see Beane passing up an opportunity to sign a guy like this. He’s made for Oakland. It doesn’t hurt that he’s also a Sacramento native.

As for the others out there, I believe Carlos Delgado will return to the Mets, Adam LaRoche will head back to Atlanta and Russell Branyan will resign with the Mariners. Pretty boring… I know. Other free agents include Eric Hinske and Ross Gload. Either one could end up in a backup role in Atlanta or Florida, but are more likely to head to the AL where they can also DH some. I’ll pass on predictions for Kevin Millar, Dmitri Young, Doug Mientkiewicz and others like them…

As for catchers… I can’t figure out why anyone in the world would be interested in Jason Kendall. He can’t hit very well, doesn’t throw out runners and is now 35 years old. In my opinion, the best he can hope for is a back up role at this point in his career. I can see him replacing Brad Ausmus for the Dodgers.

I love Bengie Molina. He’s one of my all-time favorite Angels. I really would have never of imagined him being as productive as he has been the last couple years. Now that he’s 35, he’s probably only going to get a one year deal some where. It could be the Giants, but I have a feeling he’ll end up catching for the Mets – which seems to be a popular predicted destination for Molina. He’ll make that pitching staff better and I think he’s an excellent fit.

Miguel Olivo had a pretty good 2009, all things considered. He managed to crank out 23 homeruns while hitting .249. He just doesn’t walk very often and has a low OBP. Never-the-less there is a place out there for Olivo and I believe it will be in Detroit where he will put up more solid numbers.

Yorvit Torrealba will be heading to Milwaukee where he will be an upgrade over Kendall and be “the” guy. Rod Barajas will resign with Toronto. The Blue Jays can’t afford to let him get away.

Next up, outfielders…

If you’re buying what the media is selling about Hideki Matsui, he’s headed to Seattle. That doesn’t make sense to me since they have Ken Griffey, Jr. I see Matsui in Texas as their DH.

I’ve already predicted Dye to Oakland, Bay to the Angels and Guerrero to the White Sox.

Next up... Marlon Byrd, who will become a Giant replacing Randy Winn. Byrd is one of those guys who is probably not as good as his statistics would show. He had a solid season last year in Texas, but how will he do outside of Arlington Stadium? We’ll see, but I wouldn’t expect too much. Garret Anderson will join him in San Francisco as a slightly better option than John Bowker in left field.

Look for Xavier Nady to find his way back to his original team the San Diego Padres, replacing Brian Giles who may be forced to retire and Rick Ankiel will return to the Cardinals

Andruw Jones will head to the Cubs because the Cubs seem to have a propensity of making bad decisions and because they’ll believe he can play center field. I’m kidding; then again maybe not. After the debacle that is Milton Bradley, I can see the Cubs doing this. He’ll be reunited with his hitting coach from Texas, but it won’t matter much; Jones’ best days are behind him.

The big prize of the free agent class – Matt Holliday will play for the Mets. I’m not alone in this prediction, that’s for sure.

As for the mercenary that is Johnny Damon, I’ll go out on a limb and predict his destination will be the White Sox. Damon would probably sign with just about any place willing to pay him enough.

This prediction thing is a lot of work… but I’m having a little fun with it. I did kick a kick out of the news that Vizquel is likely to sign with the White Sox – which is something I predicted the day before the news broke. Yeah, I know… I’m that blind squirrel people talk about…

Calling on the Angels to call on Chad Tracy

While Matt Holliday, Jason Bay and John Lackey are clearly the headliners in this year’s version of the Hot Stove League, I would like to talk about a guy who will fly under the radar (for the most part) and yet have the potential to be a nice pick up for someone (hopefully the Angels).

I’m talking about none other than Chad Tracy. Tracy is just 29 years old and has had more than his share of injuries the last three years. Those injuries have hindered his ability to fulfill his potential, the same potential that convinced the Arizona Diamondbacks to sign him to a three year, $13.25 million contract in 2006. At the time he looked like a bargain having come off a 2005 season where he hit .308 (6th best in the NL) with 27 homeruns and a .911 OPS (16th best in the NL). In 2006 he hit 20 homeruns and his OPS slipped to .794; however, he had become a solid run producer before succumbing to injuries to his knee and oblique over the next three seasons (including 2009).

The Diamondbacks did not pick up his $7 million 2010 option yesterday and instead bought him out for $1 million. Tracy is now a free agent and I’d like to see him in Anaheim. I see him as a low risk, medium to high reward investment. He’s a left handed bat with a little pop. His career OPS is significantly higher versus right handed pitching (.840 vs. .614), suggesting he might be a solid platoon guy. I know platoon guys don’t usually make the headlines in the Host Stove League, but I think Tracy could make some noise.

He also seems to do his best hitting late in the year with a career best .931 OPS in September/October. He's also hit more homeruns during that time period as compared to other months. I love guys who can play at a high level that time of the year.

Why the Angels? He could be an insurance policy for Brandon Wood (assuming Wood becomes the 3B next year). I don’t necessarily see him as an every day guy, but could flourish in a platoon situation with Wood (at least until Wood gets his feet wet). Scioscia loves to platoon young guys. He did this with Casey Kotchman and he’s done with Howie Kendrick and Kendry Morales.

Tracy is versatile. He can play 1B, 3B or LF. The Angels are going to need some additional pop from the left side. Outside of Kendry Morales (who is a switch hitter), they really don’t have another left handed power threat. Abreu can drive in runs, but has never been a huge long ball threat. Aybar and Izturis are solid switch hitters, but neither have hit digit homeruns in a season – even in the minor leagues (other than the one year Aybar hit 14 homeruns at Rancho Cucamonga).

He’s not the sexy choice people most people want to talk about, but I think he could help a team. Don’t get me wrong, the Angels #1 priority should still be John Lackey. I’m also hopeful Figgins and Oliver will be back and that the Angels can some how manage to sign Jason Bay. Tracy isn’t going to invoke comparisons to Troy Glaus or even Doug DeCinces, but could be added as a complimentary piece of the puzzle for next year. At the very least he could be a new and improved version of Robb Quinlan; albeit from the left side.

I know some might see Freddy Sandoval as the logical replacement for “Q.” Not me. Sandoval is only two years younger than Tracy and has had an average minor league career, in my opinion. Tracy is a “young” veteran and would likely fit the role better.

Another choice might have been Matt Brown. This past spring – some were hoping to see Brown take Quinlan’s place. Brown had a good spring, but didn’t follow it up with a solid minor league season. He hit a mere .249 with a .749 OPS with Salt Lake City. In fact Brown has a career .267 average in the minors. I’m afraid the window is closing on both Sandoval and Brown. Neither has the upside of Tracy.

I know it’s been three years since Tracy was last productive. I know he’s been injured a lot. Those are the downsides of Tracy. The upside is that Tracy hopefully has something to prove and sometimes guys who have that kind of attitude can pay off big time. The potential is definitely there and he would be a nice story if he comes through.